THE MATCHUP
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
Oct 19, 2009 @ 8:30 PM
Qualcomm Stadium

THE LINE
Chargers are the favorite, giving 3. The Under/Over is 44

THE RECORD
The Denver Broncos are 5-0 Overall, 3-0 at Home and 2-0 Away. They are 1-0 in the Division and 4-0 in their Conference.
The Broncos have scored 99 points and given up only 43.

The San Diego Chargers are 2-2 Overall, 1-1 at Home and 1-1 on the Road.
They are 1-0 in their Division and 2-2 in their Conference.
The Chargers have scored 101 points and given up 102.

2009 TRENDS AGAINST THE SPREAD
The Broncos are 5-0 ATS.
The Broncos are 2-0 ATS away.
The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as the underdog.
The Broncos are 2-0 ATS as an away underdog.
The Chargers are 1-3 ATS.
The Chargers are 1-1 ATS at home.
The Chargers are 0-1 ATS as the underdog.
The Chargers have not been a home underdog.

PREGAME ANALYSIS
One of the keys to this MNF contest is the Denver Bronco defense. In their first five games, they have given up only 43 points while allowing only 3.3 yards per carry. If they can keep the Chargers to just under 4 ypc, they can still win, even if Phillip Rivers has a big game.

Another factor that could determine the outcome is that the Broncos are averaging 139 yard rushing and the Chargers are defense are giving up 151 yards per game – and wiith their star defensive tackle Jamal Williams (IR), the Chargers defense may be in for a long day.

GAME PREDICTION
Denver Broncos 24 San Diego Chargers 21

Denver’s new head coach, Josh McDaniel has fired up the Broncos and they have bought into his system. The Broncos defense will stop the Chargers ground game and give their offense multiple opportunities to score. In addition, the Chargers defense will overpursue on the run, opening up the passing game for Kyle Orton.

source: espn, foxsports

GAME INFO:

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals
Game Date/Time:  Sat, Jan 3, 2009 4:30 pm EST : University of Phoenix Stadium, Arizona
TV: NBC

THE TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD
The Falcons are 8-8 ATS overall, 5-3 ATS away, 1-0 as the favorite and 0-0 as the away favorite

The Cardinals are 9-7 ATS overall, 5-3 ATS at home, 7-3 as the underdog and 3-0 as a home underdog

THE LINE (subject to change)
Atlanta is the favorite by 2 points. The Over/Under is 51 1/2 points

THE PREVIEW
The Falcons played well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4, but the one negative was Matt Ryan throwing 5 interceptions in his final 4 games. He had just 6 in his first 12 games. The Cardinals do not have a good pass defense and he is forecasted for a strong game with 250 passing yards and a rating of 91 in simulations. However, there is a 52 percent chance he throws 1 or more interceptions and the Falcons win just 35 percent of these simulations. If Ryan throws no interceptions the Falcons have a 58 percent chance of winning. Michael Turner was phenomenal at home this year averaging 129 yards on over 5 ypc, but on the road he averaged just 83 yards on 3.9 ypc. He is forecasted for a good, but not great game with nearly 90 yards. If Turner can dominate on the road like he were at home and have 100+ rushing yards the Falcons have a 68 percent chance of winning. The Cardinals are getting a great 300+ yard, 2 TD performance form Kurt Warner. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are averaging over 90 receiving yards in simulations and there is a 42 percent chance that both have at least 75 yards.

The Arizona Cardinals 5-5 in their last 10 games – losing to playoff teams.  In that stretch they have only beaten the Seahawks and Rams twice and San Francisco once. They lost to New England, Philadelphia and Carolina on the road and to the Giants and Vikings at home.  The Falcons are 7-3 in their last 10 games but have beaten teams like Carolina, San Diego and Minnesota. 

THE PREDICTION
Arizona Cardinals 28  Atlanta Falcons Falcons 24

Expect Kurt Warner to have the game of his life. And the Cardinals will prevail to an overperforming Atlanta Falcons team. Remember, the Cardinals are 7-3 as ATS underdogs and 3-0 ATS as underdog at home during the 2008 regular season.
The Atlanta Falcons are 0-8 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three years.

Take the Cardinals and the 2 points – and take the over in the parlay bet