GAME INFO

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
Game Date/Time:  Sun, Jan 4, 2009 1:00 pm EST 
Location: Dolphi Stadium
TV: CBS

THE TEAMS
The Baltimore Ravens finished behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North with a 11-5 record.  They have scored 347 points and given up 223.  The Ravens are known for their tenacious defense lead by Ray Lewis. But they have a rookie QB from University of Delaware named Joe Flacco who has thrown for 14 TDs and 2971 yards.

The Miami Dolphins won the AFC East division with a record of 11-5. In week 17 their win over the New York Jets knocked out the NY Jets and NE Patriots from playoff contention. The Dolphins have scored 345 point and given up 317 in 2008.

The Dolphins are led by Chad Pennington, the QB that the Jets threw away in favor of Brett Favre.  Chad was the runner up for MVP contention but was not even selected for the pro bowl while Favre, who threw 22 interceptions, was selected to the Bowl.

THE LINE
Baltimore Ravens are favored by 3 points (-3) and the Over/Under is 38 points

AGAINST THE SPREAD
The Ravens are 12-4 Straight up in 2008 and 12-4 ATS. They are 6-1 as the favorite ATS and 6-2 in road games ATS
They are 9-3 against conference opponents and 10-3 in games played on a grass field and 6-2 in games where the line is +3 to -3.

The Dolphins are 11-5 Straight up and 8-8 ATS in 2008. They are 6-3 as underdog ATS and 2-6 in home games ATS. They are 8-4 against conference opponents and 5-3 in games where the line is +3 to -3.

THE PREVIEW
The Ravens defense is well designed to beat a team like the Dolphins. They stop the run (Ronnie Brown had 27 yards on 13 carries in Week 7 vs BAL) and are only really vulnerable to accurate downfield passers. Chad Pennington is very accurate but he does most of his work on short passes. Look for the Ravens LBs and DBs limiting yards after the catch so even if Chad Pennington completes 60 percent of his passes as forecasted, his yards per attempt is a shade over 6. Joe Flacco meanwhile has taken off the training wheels and begun to take advantage of his strong arm. His yards per attempt is up from 6.6 in his first 11 games to 7.6 his past 5 games despite his completion percentage going down from 62 percent to 57 percent. The combination of big passing plays and a grinding power running game is why Baltimore is scoring 20 points per sim, 3 better than the Dolphins. If LeRon McClain has 50+ yards the Ravens chances increase to 71 percent. The Dolphins can win if they force turnovers. When Joe Flacco has at least 1 interception and the Dolphins force at least 2 total turnovers they pull ahead winning 56 percent of these simulations

THE PREDICTION
Baltimore Ravens 17  Miami Dolphins 7

The Baltimore defense will again be the factor in another Raven win.  Even though two Raven Wide Receivers are questionable for the game (Mark Clayton Derrick Mason), the running attack of Le’Ron McClain (902 yds on 232 yards and 10 TDs) will be enough for the Ravens to control the ball and score enough points to win.

Even the Ravens record on the betting line (0-8 Against the spread away and 1-7 ATS as the favorite) expect the Ravens to win.

GAME INFO:
Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers

Game Date/Time: Sat, Jan 3, 2009 8:00 pm EST

Location: Qualcomm Stadium, California
TV: NBC

THE TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS)
The Colts are 9-7 ATS overall, 4-4 ATS away, 1-1 ATS as the underdog and 0-0 as an away underdog in 2008

The Chargers are 11-5 ATS overall, 7-1 ATS at home, 8-3 ATS as the favorite and 6-1 as home favorite this season

THE LINE
The Colts are favorite by 1 point (but that spread can be different based on individual casino and betting parlor lines)
The Over/Under is 51 points

THE PREVIEW
The Colts are 9-1 in there in last 10 games and Peyton Manning is considered by many experts to be in the front running for MVP. The Chargers are a mere 5-5 over their last 10 games but beat up the Denver Broncos last week by a score of 52-21 tp knock the Broncos out of the playoffs that ended Mike Shanahan’s coaching career in Denver.
In a matchup earlier in week 12, the Colts beat the Chargers in San Diego by a score of 23-20

THE PREDICTION
Indianapolis Colts 35 San Diego Chargers 28
Indianapolis is a very dangerous team. Peyton Manning is completely healthy and they have won their last 9 in a row. One big statistic is the fact that over the last three years the Colts are 4-1 this season and 10-3 in the last three seasons when the spread is +3 to -3. The Chargers are 1-3 this year when the spread is +3 to -3.
Peyton Manning will have time to throw the ball against a sackless defense. And even Phillip Rivers won’t be able to match the points put up by the Colts.

Take Peyton Manning and the Colts in a high scoring affair.

NOTE: thenflthisweek.com has a record of 9-1-1 in their last ATS picks of the regular season.

GAME INFO:

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals
Game Date/Time:  Sat, Jan 3, 2009 4:30 pm EST : University of Phoenix Stadium, Arizona
TV: NBC

THE TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD
The Falcons are 8-8 ATS overall, 5-3 ATS away, 1-0 as the favorite and 0-0 as the away favorite

The Cardinals are 9-7 ATS overall, 5-3 ATS at home, 7-3 as the underdog and 3-0 as a home underdog

THE LINE (subject to change)
Atlanta is the favorite by 2 points. The Over/Under is 51 1/2 points

THE PREVIEW
The Falcons played well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4, but the one negative was Matt Ryan throwing 5 interceptions in his final 4 games. He had just 6 in his first 12 games. The Cardinals do not have a good pass defense and he is forecasted for a strong game with 250 passing yards and a rating of 91 in simulations. However, there is a 52 percent chance he throws 1 or more interceptions and the Falcons win just 35 percent of these simulations. If Ryan throws no interceptions the Falcons have a 58 percent chance of winning. Michael Turner was phenomenal at home this year averaging 129 yards on over 5 ypc, but on the road he averaged just 83 yards on 3.9 ypc. He is forecasted for a good, but not great game with nearly 90 yards. If Turner can dominate on the road like he were at home and have 100+ rushing yards the Falcons have a 68 percent chance of winning. The Cardinals are getting a great 300+ yard, 2 TD performance form Kurt Warner. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are averaging over 90 receiving yards in simulations and there is a 42 percent chance that both have at least 75 yards.

The Arizona Cardinals 5-5 in their last 10 games – losing to playoff teams.  In that stretch they have only beaten the Seahawks and Rams twice and San Francisco once. They lost to New England, Philadelphia and Carolina on the road and to the Giants and Vikings at home.  The Falcons are 7-3 in their last 10 games but have beaten teams like Carolina, San Diego and Minnesota. 

THE PREDICTION
Arizona Cardinals 28  Atlanta Falcons Falcons 24

Expect Kurt Warner to have the game of his life. And the Cardinals will prevail to an overperforming Atlanta Falcons team. Remember, the Cardinals are 7-3 as ATS underdogs and 3-0 ATS as underdog at home during the 2008 regular season.
The Atlanta Falcons are 0-8 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three years.

Take the Cardinals and the 2 points – and take the over in the parlay bet