The NFC wildcard Sunday game will be played in the desert between the NFC West champion Arizona Cardinals and NFC wild card Green Bay Packers. The winner of this game gets to play next week in round two of the NFC playoffs. Based on our analysis, the Arizona Cardinals will win the game that will be decided by a field goal in the final two minutes. Lets size up the two teams. The betting line on the game is a Pickem. Over/under is 47 points.

The Green Bay Packers are lead by QB Aaron Rodgers. He has proven that he is a top-tier quarterback. He also has a deep, talented group of receivers. Expect the Pack to throw the football, especially in the area covered by Arizona CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who is nursing a knee injury.

The Cardinals counter with a great passing attack of their own. QB Kurt Warner to WR Larry Fitzgerald made sweet music together in 2008 but not as sweet in 2009. WR Anquan Boldin will be at less than 100% with ankle and knee injuries.

The running attack of the both the Packers and Cardinals are average at best but the Packers get the slight edge, especially if Rodgers is successful through the air – it will make their running game that much more effective.

This matchup is the hardest of the 4 NFL wildcard games to predict. But based on the experience of Cardinals QB Kurt Warner, them playing at home and their post-season experience in 2008 (making it all the way to the Superbowl) – we give the edge to the Cardinals.

Thenflthisweek.com prediction:

Cardinals 25 Packers 21

The AFC East Division champion New England Patriots (10-6) host the AFC wild card winner Baltimore Ravens (9-7) in the second AFC matchup of Wildcard Weekend. If you’re a betting man, you can bet on the Patriots winning this one and moving on to the second week of the AFC playoffs.

The Patriots certainly aren’t the same team they were in their Superbowl seasons of 2001, 2003 and 2004. But they still have arguably the best active coach in the NFL – Bill Belichick. They also have future hall-of-famer Tom Brady leading the offense. One impressive stat that stands out is the Belichick-Brady combo have a 14-3 playoff record.

The Baltimore Ravens are lead by sophomore coach-QB combo of John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco. In 2008, the Ravens stunned the masses by not only making the playoffs but advancing to the 2008 AFC Championship game. However, in 2009 they barely beat the Oakland Raiders to win one of the two wildcard spots. And since the departure of defensive coordinator Rex Ryan (Now the Jets coach), the Ravens defense just isn’t the same.

The New England Patriots offense does have one big issue to overcome. They will operate without their star WR Wes Welker (placed on injured reserve). But Thenflthisweek.com believes that the combination of Patriots future hall-of-fame WR Randy Moss and rookie WR Julian Edelman should be able to pickup most of the slack left by Welker’s absence. The Pats also have a multitude of running backs in Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris available to carry the ball.

Don’t be misled by the Ravens offense. QB Joe Flacco has a complement of talent to help move the ball in RB Ray Rice, WR Derrick Mason and TE Todd Heap. But based on his 2009 regular season statistics, QB Flacco is not as effective on the road as he is at home.

The Patriots are favored by 3.5 points with the under/over is 43 points.

The combination and playoff history of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is the determining factor in our prediction.

Thenflthisweek.com AFC playoff prediction

Patriots 21 Ravens 17

GAME INFO:
Teams: Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings
Game Date/Time: Sun, Jan 4, 2009 4:30 pm EST
Location: Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV: FOX

THE TEAMS
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the season 9-6-1. They averaged 26 a game while giving up 18 points a game. They were 2-4 in the NFC East and 7-5 in the NFC.

Eagles QB Donovan McNabb has been on a tear recently. He has thrown 23 TDs and 3916 yards in 2008. Running Back Brian Westbrook and Wide Receiver DeSean Jackson lead the Eagles offense.

The Minnesota Vikings finished in first place in the NFC East with a record of 10-6. They have scored a liitle more than 23 points a game while giving up on average 21 points a game.

The Vikings are led by QB Gus Frerotte (12 TDS and 2157 yards), running back Adrian Peterson (10 TDs and 1760 yards) and wide receiver Bernard Berrian (7 TDs and 964 yards).

THE LINE
The Philadelphia Eagles are favorite by 3 points (-3) with the Over/Under of 41 points

AGAINST THE SPREAD 2008 REGULAR SEASON
The Eagles are 10-6 Overall ATS, 8-4 against conference opponents and 4-4 in road games. They are 8-5 as the favorite and 0-1 as the road favorite.

The Vikings are 6-10 Overall ATS and 4-8 against conference opponents. They are 3-5 in home games, 3-5 as the underdog and 0-1 as the underdog at home

THE PREVIEW
This is an extremely close game in simulations with the Eagles winning just under 51 percent of the simulations. The key to the game is turnovers. The Vikings nearly missed the playoffs because of their fumbling problems. The Eagles made the playoffs because the play-making defense forced three turnovers including 2 forced fumbles last week. If the Eagles force two or more turnovers their chances increase from 51 to 61 percent. However, if the Vikings hold onto the ball and have no more than 1 turnover they are favored winning 63 percent of these simulations. Another key is the Vikings run defense which is arguably the best when at full strength. However, since Pat Williams missed the last two games of the season they allowed 70 yards and 1 TD to Michael Turner and 77 yards on 5.1 ypc to Derrick Ward. Their last 2 opponents ran for over 100 yards on the Vikings defense. While Brian Westbrook is only averaging 3.4 ypc it is up from the 2.8 he averages if the Vikings were at full strength defensively. If Westbrook has at least 50 rushing yards the Eagles have a 67 percent chance of winning. If he is under 50 yards the Eagles win just 36 percent of the time. Adrian Peterson is averaging over 110 rushing yards per sim, but he is averaging twice as many lost fumbles as Westbrook. It will be vitally important for Peterson to hold onto the ball.

THE PREDICTION
Philadelphia Eagles 21 Minnesota Vikings 10

The Eagles started the season slowly and looked like they were out of playoff contention. QB Donovan McNabb was benched for a game. When he came back, so did the Eagles. But the Eagles defense is as good as any team right now. They come off a 44-6 pounding of the Dallas Cowboys to get into the playoffs. The Vikings don’t have a chance

sources: espn, fox sports, cbs sports, nbc sports