The New York Jets take on the San Diego Chargers in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs on Sunday in San Diego. The Jets advanced to the AFC Divisional Playoff game after beating the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Wildcard game last week 24 -14. The Chargers are the AFC West Champions, are the 2nd seed in the AFC and enjoyed a bye on AFC Wild Card weekend.

The Jets come into this Divisional playoff game as a heavy underdog (Jets +7 under/over 42 points). That’s a huge spread for a playoff game – but spreads are made to be broken. And Thenflthisweek.com predicts that not only will the Jets beat the spread, they will win the game outright. Here’s why:

As everyone now knows, the Jets are #1 in team defense and 1st against the pass; they also have the #1 rushing offense. The Jets QB Mark Sanchez threw 20 interceptions in the regular season but hasn’t thrown one in the last 3 games. The Jets starting running back, Thomas Jones has a banged-up knee and was limited to 15 carries and 34 yards against the Bengals last week. However, rookie RB Shonn Green picked up the slack and rushed for 135 yards. Sanchez has two good receivers in Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards.

The Chargers are the hottest team in the NFL and the winners of 11 straight. They have captured their 4th straight AFC West championship and will be rested from the bye last week.

Chargers QB Phillips Rivers is ranked 3rd in the NFL in QB passing rating with a 104.4. He completed over 65% of his passes for over 4200 yards and 28 TDs. Rivers has a exceptional retrieving corps in Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates. And don’t forget they have running back LaDainian Tomlinson.

Many NFL analysts and armchair quarterbacks believe that the Chargers will win the game. Others believe that for the Jets to pull an upset, its up to the Jets defense to stop the powerful Chargers offense. We disagree!

The key to a Jets win is their #1 rated rushing attack. The Jets offense must be able to keep drives alive by running the ball and taking time off the clock. They must keep Rivers and the Chargers offense off the field. If the Jets rushing attack is successful it opens up the chances of Sanchez taking advantage of the play action pass for some big plays.

To a lesser extent, the Jets Defense must stop the Chargers running threat, LaDainian Tomlinson. If they can do that, the Jets could take advantage of their #1 ranked defense against the pass. This will allow them to play man-to-man and put heavy pressure on Rivers and force turnovers.

The Jets have something else going for them, it’s the Chargers bad karma in the playoffs. In 2006 they won 10 straight going into the playoffs then were cut down by New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. In 2007 they won 8 in a row before losing to the Patriots again in the AFC Conference Title game. And last year, they upset the Colts in the Wild Card matchup and lost to the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

And finally, the Jets have the momentum, confidence and belief they can go all the way to the Super Bowl.

Thenflthisweek.com Prediction:

Jets 35 Chargers 31

There are two things we can be assured of: it’s the beginning of a new decade and the final week of the NFL regular season.

What we can’ be assured of is what teams will make the AFC playoffs; and the AFC playoff scenarios have seemingly endless possibilities.

What we do know is that four teams have clinched an AFC playoff spot: the Colts, Patriots, Bengals and Chargers. Six other teams are vying for the final two AFC playoff spots: the Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Jaguars and Dolphins.

Here are the AFC playoff scenarios for week 16 of the NFL football season:

Indianapolis Colts (14-0)
Clinched the AFC South and homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs

San Diego Chargers
Clinched the AFC South and first round bye

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5)
Clinched the AFC North

New England Patriots (10-5)
Clinched the AFC East

New York Jets (8-7)
Clinch a playoff spot with a win

Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Clinch a playoff spot with a win

Denver Broncos (8-7)
Clinch a playoff spot with:
win and New York loss or tie and Baltimore loss or tie OR
win and New York loss or tie and Pittsburgh loss or tie OR
win and New York loss or tie and Houston win OR
win and Baltimore loss or tie and Pittsburgh loss or tie OR
win and Baltimore loss or tie and Houston win OR
Pittsburgh loss and Baltimore loss and Houston loss and Jacksonville loss OR
Pittsburgh loss and Baltimore loss and Jacksonville loss and New York loss OR
Pittsburgh loss and Houston loss and Jacksonville loss and New York loss OR
New York loss and Baltimore loss and Houston loss and Jacksonville loss or tie

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
Clinch a playoff spot with:
win and Houston loss or tie and New York loss or tie Or
win and Houston lossor tie and Baltimore loss or tie OR
win and New York loss or tie and Baltimore loss or tie and Denver loss or tie

Houston Texans (8-7)
Clinch a playoff spot with:
win and New York loss or tie and Baltimore loss or tie OR
win and New York loss or tie and Denver loss or tie OR
win and Baltimore loss or tie and Denver loss or tie

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8)
Clinch a playoff spot with:
win and Pittsburgh loss and Baltimore loss and Denver loss and Houston loss OR
win and Pittsburgh loss and Baltimore loss and Denver loss and New York loss OR
win and Pittsburgh loss and Baltimore loss and Houston loss and New York loss OR
win and Pittsburgh loss and Denver loss and Houston loss and New York loss OR
win and New York loss and Denver loss and Houston loss and Baltimore loss

Miami Dolphins
Clinch a playoff spot with:
win and New York loss and Baltimore loss and Houston loss and Jacskonville loss or tie

Additional Note: To make things even more complicated: New York, Baltimore,Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs if they tie in combination with various other results. But Jacksonville and Miami cannot make the playoff with a tie.

It will be interesting watching the NFL analysts go through these scenarios over and over as the day goes bye. But one thing we can be assured of, the AFC playoff scenarios will be cast in stone by 9:00 pm ET tomorrow night.

sources: nfl.com, espn.com foxsports, New York Daily News

GAME INFO:
Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers

Game Date/Time: Sat, Jan 3, 2009 8:00 pm EST

Location: Qualcomm Stadium, California
TV: NBC

THE TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS)
The Colts are 9-7 ATS overall, 4-4 ATS away, 1-1 ATS as the underdog and 0-0 as an away underdog in 2008

The Chargers are 11-5 ATS overall, 7-1 ATS at home, 8-3 ATS as the favorite and 6-1 as home favorite this season

THE LINE
The Colts are favorite by 1 point (but that spread can be different based on individual casino and betting parlor lines)
The Over/Under is 51 points

THE PREVIEW
The Colts are 9-1 in there in last 10 games and Peyton Manning is considered by many experts to be in the front running for MVP. The Chargers are a mere 5-5 over their last 10 games but beat up the Denver Broncos last week by a score of 52-21 tp knock the Broncos out of the playoffs that ended Mike Shanahan’s coaching career in Denver.
In a matchup earlier in week 12, the Colts beat the Chargers in San Diego by a score of 23-20

THE PREDICTION
Indianapolis Colts 35 San Diego Chargers 28
Indianapolis is a very dangerous team. Peyton Manning is completely healthy and they have won their last 9 in a row. One big statistic is the fact that over the last three years the Colts are 4-1 this season and 10-3 in the last three seasons when the spread is +3 to -3. The Chargers are 1-3 this year when the spread is +3 to -3.
Peyton Manning will have time to throw the ball against a sackless defense. And even Phillip Rivers won’t be able to match the points put up by the Colts.

Take Peyton Manning and the Colts in a high scoring affair.

NOTE: thenflthisweek.com has a record of 9-1-1 in their last ATS picks of the regular season.