Nfl Week 16 Picks

December 21, 2008

NFL Playoff Scenarios Week 16

Here is a quick glance at the NFL Playoff picture as of Sunday 12/21 after the 1:00 pm EST games have been played:

AFC
1  Tennessee  South 13-2-0
2  Pittsburgh (yz) North 11-4-0
3  Miami East 10-5-0
4  Denver West 8-6-0
5  Indianapolis (x) South 11-4-0
6  Baltimore North 10-5-0

Still alive
7  New England East 10-5-0
8  N.Y. Jets East 9-5-0
11  San Diego West 7-8-0

Eliminated
9  Houston South 7-7-0
10  Buffalo East 6-8-0
12  Jacksonville South 5-10-0
13  Cleveland North 4-11-0
14  Cincinnati North 3-11-1
15  Oakland West 3-11-0
16  Kansas City West 2-13-0

NFC
Seed Team Division Record
1  N.Y. Giants (y) East 11-3-0
2  Carolina (x) South 11-3-0
3  Minnesota North 9-5-0
4  Arizona (y) West 8-7-0
5  Atlanta South 9-5-0
6  Philadelphia East 8-5-1

Still alive
7  Dallas East 9-6-0
8  Tampa Bay South 9-6-0
9  Chicago North 8-6-0
11  Washington East 7-7-0

Eliminated
10  New Orleans South 8-7-0
12  San Francisco West 6-9-0
13  Green Bay North 5-9-0
14  Seattle West 3-11-0
15  St. Louis West 2-13-0
16  Detroit North 0-15-0

legend
x-clinched playoff berth
y-denotes division winner
z-denotes first-round bye
*-clinched home-field advantage

More on the playoff possibilities …

AFC EAST
Miami sits on top and the Patriots and Jets are alive for the Wildcard

AFC SOUTH
Tennessee clinched the division and a first-round bye. It can clinch home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs with a win.

Indianapolis clinched a playoff spot with its win over Jacksonville on Thursday.

AFC NORTH DIVISION
Even with a loss today against Tennessee, the Pittsburgh Steelers have clinched the division and a first-round bye. Baltimore is alive for a wild-card spot.

AFC WEST DIVISION
Denver can clinch the division with 1) a win or tie; 2) a San Diego loss or tie.
NFC EAST DIVISION
The New York Giants clinched the division. They can clinch a first-round bye with: 1) a win or tie; 2) a Minnesota loss or tie. They can clinch home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with: 1) a win vs. Carolina.

Dallas can clinch a playoff spot next week with: 1) a win or tie against Philadelphia and an Atlanta loss; 2) a win and a loss or tie by Chicago and a Tampa Bay loss; 3) a win and an Atlanta loss, a Chicago loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss.

NFC SOUTH DIVISION
Carolina has clinched a playoff spot after Dallas’ loss Saturday to Baltimore. It can clinch the division with: 1) a win or tie; 2) losses or ties by both Tampa Bay and Atlanta. It can clinch a first-round bye with: 1) a win or tie; 2) a Tampa Bay loss or tie and an Atlanta- Minnesota tie. It can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with: 1) a win against the N.Y. Giants.

Tampa Bay can clinch a playoff spot with: 1) a win, an Atlanta loss and a Philadelphia loss or tie; 2) a win, an Atlanta loss and a Dallas loss or tie.

Atlanta can clinch a playoff spot with: 1) a win and losses by Tampa Bay and Philadelphia; 2) a win and losses by Tampa Bay and Dallas.

NFC NORTH DIVISION
Minnesota can clinch the division with: 1) a win; 2) a tie and a Chicago tie; 3) a Chicago loss.

NFC WEST DIVISION
Arizona has clinched the division.

source: ESPN, FOX, nfl.com, cbssports.com

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NFL Week 16 Sunday Pick Of The Week

We’re getting down to end of the season and Sunday’s game between the Steelers and Titans should be one of the best games of the season.  This is a highly anticipated game and the weather conditions are looking perfect.  Below are the game particulars and our prediction. We are 8-0-1 in our last 9 predictions.

                                                           GAME INFO

Date: Sunday, Dec 21, 2008
Kickoff:  1:00 PM ET
Teams: Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) vs Tennessee Titans (12-2) 
Location: LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee

THE LINE (subject to change)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the Underdog (+2).  The Under/Over is 34

THE MATCHUP
The Pittsburgh Steelers have already clinched the AFC North Crown.  They are 11-3 overall and 6-1 on the road.  They have scored 302 points in 14 games while giving up only 192 - that leads all of the NFL.

The Tennessee Titans also have clinched their division - the AFC South.  The are 12-2 overall and 6-1 at home.  They have scored 344 points while giving up only 197 in the 14 regular season games this year

AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS)
The Steelers are 8-6 ATS overall, 5-2 ATS away, 5-1 ATS as the underdog and 5-1 ATS as an away underdog

The Titans are 11-2 ATS overall, 5-1 ATS at home,8-2 ATS as the favorite and 4-1 ATS as a home favorite

PREVIEW
Kerry Collins is just a mediocre QB with a rating in the mid-60s. He doesn’t throw many interceptions but he doesn’t throw many TDS either.  The Titans will have a key part of their defense  out on Sunday.  Their Pro Bowl bound Defensive End Albert Haynesworth is out.  The Steelers are averaging over 100 yards on the ground and that number should increase with Haynesworth out. 
 
PREDICTION (ATS)
Pittsburgh Steelers 17  Tennessee Titans 14.
Although the Titans are playing at home and are 8-1 ATS as a favorite, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense will be the difference in the game.  The Steelers also have the edge at the QB position - Ben Roethlisberger over Kerry Collins.
Another key factor is the Titans Pro Bowl bound defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is out.  This will give the Steelers running attack the ability to grind the ball on the ground. It will result in the Titans over committing to the run. Roethlisberger will take advantage and sneak in some deep passes.

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December 16, 2008

thenflthisweek.com Top 10 NFL Power Ranking Week 16

thenflthisweek.com has a record of 8-0-1 in NFL picks against the spread over the last few weeks.  Now we are expanding our analysis to include our top 10 NFL Power Rankings. Why?

After doing extensive analysis on the NFL Power Rankings, we determined they are as objective as the college football polls. 

Sources such as ESPN, FOX and other entities all come up with their own.  But who is right?  None.  So we at thenflthisweek.com have compiled our own ranking based on many factors - and we tell you what these factors are!

 The ranking was ascertained by rating overall record, record within the division, record within the conference, strength of schedule, points scored, points given up, home/away record, key injuries, expert analysis, game statistics, turnover ratio, quarterback, running back and wide receiver strength, defense prowess and other intangibles.   WEEK 16 schedule and location are not a factor in the power rankings.

In week 15 of the NFL season, the top two teams in the NFL power ranking both loss.  The Tennessee Titans lost to the Houston Texans and the New York Giants lost to the Dallas Cowboys.  So how did the loses effect the overall power ranking going into week 16?

Here are our top 10 NFL Football Power Rankings for Week 16

1)  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3-0)
The Steelers played the Baltimore Ravens in a masterful game last week - winning with a few minutes left on the clock. There defense is the best in the AFC and the offense scores just enough points to win.  Pittsburgh leads the AFC North and will play the leader of the AFC South on Sunday - Tennessee Titans.

2) Tennesee Titans (12-2-0)
Although the Titans lost to the Houston Texans.  The Texans are a very good team even though they are only  7-7.  The Titans have a formidable defense that gives them an edge of the #3 ranked New York Giants.

3) New York Giants (12-2-0)
Yeah, we know they lost two games in a row. But Eli Manning and the Giants defense have what it takes to finish undefeated.  Playing within the conference certainly hurt them the last two weeks -but again, the Giants defense is the best in the NFC.  The Giants play #4 ranked Carolina at home on Sunday. Giants are #1 in the NFC East

4) Carolina Panthers (11-3-0)
The Panthers have been a sleeper most of the year but are turning it on over the last few weeks.  The test will come this weekend when they play the Giants in the Swamps of Jersey. The Panthers are in first place in the NFC South.

5) Dallas Cowboys (9-5-0)
The Cowboys defense sacked Eli Manning 8 times last week in Dallas and made the Giants offense look sad.  Romo and company are fighting amongst themselves but that should help them as each player wants to prove their worth.  They are in second place in the NFC East behind the Giants.  They are not guaranteed a postseason spot at this time. Dallas plays on Saturday against the Baltimore Ravens. 

6)  Baltimore Ravens (9-5-0)
The Ravens lost a tough fought battle to the AFC North leader Pittsburgh Steelers last week 13-9.  The Ravens defense is as good as the Steelers, except for one game against the Giants earlier in the season.  The Ravens play the Dallas Cowboys on the road in Dallas next Saturday

7) Indianapolis Colts (10-4-0)
Where have the Colts been all year?  It seems that Peyton Manning’s knee has healed as they have reeled off 8 wins in a row.  The Colts are right behind the Tennessee Titans is the AFC South.  The play Jacksonville on 4 days rest this week, in the Thursday night game of the week.

8) New England Patriots (9-5-0)
Who would have thunk it? Even if the Patriots win out - they could still miss the postseason.  Matt Cassel has been tremendous at QB and done something even the great Tom Brady hasn’t done - thrown for two 400 yard games in a season.  The defense is old but they get the job done. The Patriots play at home against the Arizona Cardinals - they should get it done.

9) Minnesota Vikings (9-5-0)
Probably the most underrated team in the league. The Viking play at home against Atlanta.  They quietly lead the NFC North.

10) Atlanta Falcons (9-5-0)
Another sleeper who may have their first winning season in years.  They are tied with the Tampa Bay Bucs for second in the NFC South.  They play the Viking Sunday - this game will determine their destiny.

So there you have it.  The top 10 teams in the NFL according to thenflthisweek.com.

Check back on Thursday afternoon for our Thursday Night Pick of The Week, check on Saturday for our Saturday and Sunday pick and on Monday for our Monday Night Pick of the Week.  Tuesdays we revisit the power rankings for the week.

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