On Thursday, December 11, we predicted the Bears would win 24-20. The Bears did win in overtime by a final score of 27-24. The Bears were favorited by 3 points and our pick resulted in a push.  In our last 8 NFL picks we are 7-0-1 against the spread.  An pretty impressive record. 

In our best bet pick for Sunday, December 14 - Week 15 of the NFL football season, we are picking the San Francisco 49ers over the Miami Dolphins.

GAME INFO
Teams: San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, Dec 14, 2008
Kickoff: 1:00 pm EST
Teams: Location: Dolphin Stadium, Miami Florida
TV: Fox

THE LINE (Daily Line for Saturday, December 13)
The CURRENT line of 3 of 4 top bookmakers favorites the Dolphins by 6 points. (1 bookmaker has the Dolphins giving up 7 points)
All four of the bookmakers share the CURRENT Under/Over points line of 41 1/2

THE MATCHUP
The 49ers are 5-8 overall, 2-4 on the road, 2-3 in the NFC West and 3-7 in the NFC
The Dolhpins are 8-5 overall, 4-3 at home, 3-2 in the AFC Eat and 6-4 in the AFC

LAST WEEK
The Dolphins beat the Buffalo Bills by the score of 16-3.  The defeat of the Bills practically eliminated them from the post season with a record of 6-7.

The San Francisco 49ers beat the New York Jets 24-14.  An impressive win for the 49ers and their interim coach Mike Singletary. 

AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS)
49ers
6-7 ATS Overall
3-3 ATS away
4-6 ATS as underdog
3-3 ATS as an away underdog

Dolphins
6-7 ATS Overall
2-5 ATS at home
0-4 ATS as favorite
0-3 ATS as a home favorite

PREVIEW
The San Francisco 49ers are playing hard for interim coach - Mike Singletary.  These last few games will make the difference in him backing back as the full-time coach next year.  The 49ers QB change to Shaun Hill has paid off.  It has made the offense more balanced. He has thrown for 11 touchdowns and with only 4 interceptions.

The Miami Dolphins are coming off a 1-15 season and have made a tremendous turnaround by acquiring QB Chad Pennington, who was released by the Jets after the signing of Bred Favre.  Both those teams are benefitting from the moves.  Miami’s the long misunderstood, ganja smoking, previously suspended running back Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown have led a successful running attack for the Dolphins this year.

KEYS TO THE GAME
The San Francisco 49ers are out of the post season but they are playing hard for Mike Singletary. Last week they beat the AFC East leading New York Jets 24-14.  They played tenacious defense and scored enough points to win.   This week the 49ers play another AFC East team in the Miami Dolphins.

If the 49ers Frank Gore is healthy and can run for a 100 yards, the Dolphins are in for a rough day. On the flip side, if Ricky Williams and Chad Pennington both have big games, the 49ers will fall short.
INJURIES (as of 12/12/08)
49ers
Arnax Battle WR (foot) is OUT
Frank Core RB (ankle) is QUESTIONABLE
Nate Clemens CB (thumb) and Josh Morgan WR (groin) are PROBABLE

Dolphins
No Injuries

PREDICTION
Miami Dolphins 21, San Francisco 49ers 17

We cannot believe that the current line favors the Miami Dolphins by 7 points.  The 49ers are playing for respect and believe in their coach - Mike Singletary.  Although the Dolphins are tied with the Jets and the Patriots, we just can’t see them winning by more than 7 points. We emphasize the point that both teams a little of 21 points a game.  

The QB situation is also a major reason for our prediction.  49ers QB Shaun Hill has thrown 10 TDS with only 4 interceptions while Dolphins QB, Chad Pennington has thrown for 8 TDS but thrown 11 interceptions - not good!

Finally, the Dolphins “reverse-perfect” record against the spread: ATS favorite (0-4) and a home ATS favorite (0-3) record make this an obvious best bet for the week.

But this is NFL football and anything can happpen (especially with the officiating these days).

U.S. Marshalls are searching for Mark Ingram, a one-time Super Bowl star as wide receiver for the New York Giants, who failed to show up Friday to begin a 7-year, 8-month sentence at a federal prison in Kentucky.

Ingram had not shown up for sentencing several times at federal court in Central Islip, after his conviction for attempting to launder $100,000 for people he thought were Uniondale drug dealers. Ingram was caught in an FBI sting operation.

When Ingram missed several sentencing dates U.S. District Judge Denis Hurley rescheduled sentencing each time. But Hurley issued an arrest warrant for Ingram on Monday, after federal prosecutor Richard Donoghue told the judge Ingram had not appeared at the federal prison in Ashland, Ky., to begin his sentence, according to court papers.

Ingram’s attorney, Raymond Colon, could not be reached for comment. Donoghue, who said in court after Ingram missed a sentencing date that the ex-football player apparently believed court dates were “optional,” declined to comment yesterday.

A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s office on Long Island, says  a warrant for his arrest was issued.  He is still on the lam!

The former NY Giant standout has sought freedom until after the college football season so he could watch his son’s freshman season as a running back for the University of Alabama.

Stay tuned for more on this developing story.

GAME INFO
New Orleans Saints (7-6) vs Chicago Bears (7-6)

Date: Thursday, Dec 11, 2008
Kickoff:  8:15 PM ET
Teams: Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill
Weather Forecast: 21 - 31 degrees with 10% chance of precipitation

THE LINE (subject to change)
Bears giving 3 points to the Saints  Under/Over 44

THE MATCHUP
New Orleans Saints are 4th in the NFC South (7-6-0), 3 games behind the Carolina Panters who are 10-3.  They have scored 366 points and given up 326.  They are 2-3 in the division and 4-5 in the conference and 1-5 on the Road.

The Chicago Bears are 2nd in the NFC North behind the Minnesota Vikings.  They have scored 304 points while giving up 278.  They are 3-2 in the division and 5-5 in the conference and 4-2 at home.

AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS)
The Saints are 9-4 ATS, 3-3 ATS Away, 3-2 ATS as the underdog and 2-2 ATS as an away underdog

The Bears are 6-6 ATS, 3-3 ATS at hoe, 4-3 ATS as the favorite and 2-2 ATS as a home favorite.

PREVIEW
This is probably the toughest game of the week to call and the first meeting between the two this season.  The game will be on the shoulders of the Saints QB, Drew Brees and the Bears running back, Matt Forte.  If Brees keeps his interceptions to 1 or less there is a good chance the Saints can upset the Bears.  If Forte has a 100+ yard game it puts the Bears in a good position to keep Brees off the field and win the game.

Both teams are still in the post-season hunt but they need to continue to win to have a chance.

Weather should not be an issue Thursday night. It will be cold but the wind should not be a factor. 

One big stat that sticks out is the Saints are only 1-5 on the Road.

INJURIES
Bears
Marty Booker WR Ribs Did Not Participate In Practice
Desmond Clark TE Hamstring Did Not Participate In Practice
Tommie Harris DT Knee Did Not Participate In Practice
Jason McKie RB Quadricep Did Not Participate In Practice
Garrett Wolfe RB Hamstring Did Not Participate In Practice

Saints
Jammal Brown T Ankle Did Not Participate In Practice
Will Smith DE Not Injury Related Did Not Participate In Practice
Roman Harper S Shoulder Full Participation in Practice
 
 
PREDICTION (ATS)
The Bears are giving 3 points (-3) to the Saints who are 1-5 on the Road.  I see the Bears controlling the ball and winning the game by 4 points.

Chicago Bears 24 New Orleans Saints 20