Nfl Predictions

December 22, 2010

NFL Week 16 Schedule, Spreads and Predictions

With the NFL playoff picture cloudy with just two weeks left, winning in week 16 action is essential for the playoff contenders. NFL action expands to 4 games this week: Panthers - Steelers on Thursday, Cowboys - Cardinals Saturday, 13 games on Sunday and a great NFC matchup on Monday with the Saints against the Falcons.

Here are the spreads and predictions against-the spread (ATS) for Week 16 of the NFL season.

NFL THURSDAY, December 23, 2010
Panthers (+15) over STEELERS (Over/Under: 37)
A 15-point spread in an NFL game is just too much, especially when the favorite has already sewn up a playoff spot.
Take the Panthers and the points

NFL SATURDAY, December 25, 2010
Cowboys (-7) Over CARDINALS (Over/Under: 45)
With both teams out of the playoff picture, this game is big for Dallas’ interim coach Jason Garrett, who is trying to prove he has what it takes to be the Cowboys new head coach. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
The underachieving Cowboys should win by 10

NFL SUNDAY, December 26, 2010
Lions (+3.5) Over DOLPHINS (Over/Under: 41.5)
The Dolphin offense and QB Chad Henne have just been atrocious lately.  The Lions are coming off a 2 game win streak. The Lions are 1-4 ATS and 8-4 ATS as the away underdog. The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
The Lions have gained confidence and will fry the Fish.

JAGUARS (-7) Over Redskins (Over/Under: 46)
In Week 15, the Redskins replaced QB Donovan McNabb with Rex Grossman but it still wasn’t enough to beat the NFC East, last place, Cowboys. The Jaguars are 4-0 as the ATS favorite and 4-0 ATS as a home favorite.
Go with the trend and the Jaguars

RAMS (-2.5) 0ver 49ers (Over/Under: 39.5)
Can you believe that a divisional leader has a 6-8 record? Well, that’s the story in the NFC West where the Rams and Seahawks share that record and the lead. The trends show the 49ers have the advantage, going 8-2 within the division while the Rams are 1-9 in December.
With the NFC Division title within grasp, you gotta go against the trends and take the Rams.

Patriots (-9) Over BILLS (Over/Under: 44)
In week 15 action, the Patriots needed a 4th quarter TD to get past the Packers. The Pats are assured at least a playoff spot but a win this week secures them the AFC East championship. After an 0-8 start, the Bills are 4-2. Straight up, the Bills are 1-18 in their last 19 meetings with the Patriots. The Patriots have lost their last two ATS.
Look for the Patriots to win big and on the winning side ATS.

Jets (+1) Over BEARS (Over/Under: 36.5)
The Bears are the NFC Division champs after Monday night’s blowout of the Packers (40-14). You can throw out all the trends and statistics in this one; the Bears can afford to rest their starters and the Jets need a win.
Take the Jets, period.

Ravens (-4) Over Browns (Over/Under: 39.5)
With the Pittsburgh Steelers assured a playoff spot, the Ravens need a win to stay in the AFC playoff picture. The Browns are 5-9 in 2010 and out of the playoffs. Expect the Ravens to stay on the ground and live off Rice (RB Ray Rice) this Sunday.
Take the Ravens – forget the points.

CHIEFS (-5) Over Titans (Over/Under: 42)
The Chiefs are 6-0 at home (SU) in 2010 and KC is a tough place to play. The Chiefs are better in the turnover department (+.03 vs .- 07) and the Titans are penalty prone. In addition, the Chiefs control their own destiny in the AFC West playoff race. A Chiefs (10-4) win combined with a San Diego loss (9-5) spells a divisional title for KC.  KC QB Matt Cassel is back in form after an appendectomy.
Expect the Titans to have an “add-a-loss-to-me” this week ATS.

Texans (-3) Over BRONCOS (Over/Under: 48.5)
Neither of these two are in the AFC playoff picture and both teams have had a disappointing and underachieving year. The Texans are 4-9 ATS and the Broncos 4-10 ATS in 2010 - tough one to pick with nothing on the line.
Take the Texans giving 3.

Colts (-3) Over RAIDERS (Over/Under: 47)
The Colts, once again, find themselves in need of a win to stay in the NFL playoff race.  The Raiders, for the first time in many years, have a chance (although very slim) in December of making the playoffs. Even with favorite WR Austin Collie on IR (concussion), never go again Peyton Manning with his back against the wall.
Take the Colts ATS to stay in the AFC playoff race

Chargers (-7.5) Over BENGALS (Over/Under: 44)
It seems that the Bengals have been out of the playoff picture for months.  The surging Chargers still have chance at the playoffs with a few wins and a big slip up by the Chiefs
7 ½ points seems like a lot but not for Rivers and the hot Chargers.

Giants (NL) Over PACKERS (Over/Under: NL)
The Giants gotta be burning inside after theirs colossal collapse (forget the Joe Pisarcik – Eagles game) in the Meadowlands last week against the Eagles (L 38-31). Regardless of that outcome, the Giants control their own destiny in the NFC playoff race.
Doesn’t matter what the spread is in this game – the Giants win big and redeem themselves after their worst loss in team history.

EAGLES (NL) Over Vikings (Over/Under: NL)
Michael Vick’s performance against the Giants in week 15 is enough to make this game the lock of the week, regardless of the spread, especially after the Vikings getting routed by the Bears on Monday night (40-14).
Is Michael Vick the NFL MVP? Doesn’t matter in this contest – take the Eagles.

MONDAY, December 27, 2010
FALCONS (-3) Over Saints (Over/Under (48.5)
What a great Monday night game, and absolutely the best NFL matchup of week 16. Even though the Falcons are guaranteed a playoff spot, don’t expect a letup in their play.Simply, take the Falcons and QB Matt Ryan.

HOMETEAM IN CAPS

NL = No Line on the spread as of press time (espn, bodog.com, sportsinteraction.com, 5dimes.com, sdgglobal)  SU = Straight Up  ATS = Against the spread

Spreads as/of Wed. 12/22/10 12:00 pm EST

The results of Week 16 NFL action set the scene for the final NFL playoff picture.

Sources: bodog.com ,espn.com

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December 16, 2008

Plaxico Syndrome Killing The Giants

It seems that the plan for the New York Giants to repeat as Super Bowl champions is in jeopardy.  And it all started just a few weeks ago with the arrest of star wide receiver Plaxico Burress.

Plaxico Burress is the outspoken and often in trouble New York Giant receiver who was suspended after shooting himself in the thigh at a nightclub in New York City. 

Since his suspension, the Giants have lost two games in a row and the offense has stalled.  The Giants front office and coaches say their recent slump has nothing to do with the Plaxico situation but there is no denying the loss of Burress could very well cost the Giants (11-3) the first-round bye that just weeks ago seemed a sure thing.

If the Giants lose their final two games to Carolina (11-3) and Minnesota (9-5) and the Vikings win their last two, then the Giants will play a first-round game.

The Plaxico-less offense has been able to muster only 1 touchdown in losses to the Philadelphia and Dallas the past two weeks.

“There is very little getting done offensively,” coach Tom Coughlin said Monday. “We are just unable right now; we haven’t made a play in the last couple of weeks and we really have to make some plays. We’re very disappointed. The players are disappointed.”

The road won’t get any easier this week with the Panthers coming to the Meadowlands for a game in which the winner will clinch a first-round bye and NFC’s home-field advantage for the postseason.

In addition to the loss of Plaxico - Brandon Jacobs, the “earth” of the “earth, wind and fire” running back trio, has a knee injury that sidelined against the Cowboys last week and may be unavailable for the matchup next week with Carolina.

Plaxico’s replacement Domik Hixon has not stepped up and has dropped at least one sure touchdown pass and the senior citizen of the receivers, Amani Toomer is no longer a deep pass threat.

The Giants offensive line has also played sub-par over the last two weeks.  The offensive line has protected Eli Manning well, but against the Cowboys, Eli was sacked 8 times and 12 times over the last two weeks.

What is going on?

Since Plaxico is out, teams no longer need to double team the receivers. Instead they can position the Safety to stop the run.  And with Brandon Jacobs out, the Giant running attack is suspect.

The one bright spot for the Giants is their defense.  Their defense kept them in the 20-14 loss to Philadelphia and the 20-8 loss to Dallas.

Sundays game will be a testament to the intestinal fortitude of the Giants - but they have come back from adversity before.

Don’t count the Giants out yet!

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November 2, 2008

NFL Week 9 Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans

NFL Week 9 - Game To Watch Green Bay vs Tennessee

Green Bay Packers (4-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-0)

GAME INFO
November 2, 2008
Location: LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee
Time: 1:00 P.M. EST
TV: FOX

SPREAD
Tennessee @ home giving (-4.0). The Under/Over is 40.5
Odds come from Las Vegas Mirage a/o 11/2 6:00 a.m. EST

Green Bay is 4-3 against the spread (ATS) (2-1 as Visitors) while Tennessee is 7-0 (ATS) (4-0 at Home)
Green Bay is 5-1-1 ATS Over/Under (ATS O/U) while Tennessee is 4-3 (ATS O/U)

HOT ODDS TRENDS
Green Bay Packers
9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.

Tennessee
7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

TEAM STANDINGS
The Green Bay Packers (4-3) are tied for first place with the Chicago Bears (4-3)in the NFC North. They are followed by the Minnesota Vikings (3-4) and the lowly Detroit Lions (0-7). They are coming off there BYE week.
The Packers are averaging 25 points a game while giving up 22.

The Tennessee Titans is the only undefeated team left in the NFL. They are 7-0. 4-0 at home and only 1-0 against the NFC. The three teams behind them in the AFC South, the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars are all 3-4. The Titans kept their undefeated season alive by defeating the disappointing Indianapolis Colts @ home by a score of 31-21
The Titans are averaging 25 points a game while giving up only 12.

MOMENTUM
Kerry Collins has been asked to pass frequently in prior matchups with the Green Bay Packers. He isn’t likely to have to carry that much of a burden this time.

The Titans, who continue to get efficient play from Collins, look to remain the NFL’s last unbeaten team when they face the Packers on Sunday.

Tennessee (7-0) has been winning with dominating defense, a strong running game and sound decision-making from Collins. The veteran is averaging 28.0 passes in his six starts, completing 58.2 percent of them with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s gone five straight games without being sacked, and has been sacked once in 170 attempts on the season.

Collins, though, was asked to throw the ball more than usual Monday night against AFC rival Indianapolis, and went 24-for-37 with 193 yards and no interceptions in a 31-21 Titans win. He needed to put the ball in the air with the Colts using four linebackers to slow a Tennessee ground game that set a franchise record with 332 yards rushing against Kansas City the previous week.

“We can’t be happy,” Collins said. “We’ve got to put this game behind us and focus on the next game. I think that’s what allowed us to put this streak together is the fact that regardless of what happened the week before, we are able to put it behind us and move on to the next opponent.”

That performance, however, was still a far cry from what was required from Collins in his last two games against Green Bay (4-3). He set a career high with 59 pass attempts - which he has since matched - for the New York Giants in a 34-25 loss Jan. 6, 2002, and put the ball in the air 53 times for Carolina in a 37-30 defeat Sept. 27, 1998.

Those were two of the three highest pass-attempt totals of Collins’ career, but he might not come close to approaching that in this contest with the Packers struggling to stop the run.

Green Bay is allowing 141.9 yards per game on the ground. The Titans, meanwhile, have averaged 145.0 rushing yards a contest.

The running back combination of Chris Johnson (626 yards, four touchdowns) and LenDale White (327 yards, 10 TDs) has helped Tennessee score 30 or more points in four of its last five games, its best stretch since scoring at least 30 in five straight early in 2003.

The outstanding rushing attack has complemented the NFL’s best scoring defense. Tennessee has allowed 87 points, 23 fewer than Pittsburgh and Baltimore (110).

“Each week every team gets an opportunity to go out and play. We’ve had seven opportunities and won each of our games,” Titans linebacker Keith Bulluck said. “No one expects us to have an undefeated season, and that’s great, but we know every time we step on that field we have a shot to beat anyone we play.”

The Titans, though, will be facing a Packers team that has averaged 27.7 points per game, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is healthier after a bye week. Rodgers got a chance to rest after gutting out three straight games with a sprained right shoulder.

Rodgers did manage to play well during that span, completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 707 yards and six TDs with one INT. He completed 75.0 percent (21-for-28) of his attempts for 186 yards and a TD in a 34-14 victory over the Colts on Oct. 19, as Green Bay moved into a tie with Chicago atop the NFC North.

The bye also gave the Packers defense a chance to get healthier. Cornerback Al Harris (spleen) and safety Atari Bigby (hamstring) appear ready to return from injuries.

Harris, coming off his first Pro Bowl last season, was injured in the Packers’ Sept. 21 loss to Dallas, and initially there was concern that he might be out for the season.

Bigby’s hamstring injury has been overshadowed by Harris’ absence, but the safety’s physical presence was an important part of the Packers’ success last season. Bigby has missed five games.

“Obviously I think every team in the league has to deal with injuries,” Green Bay defensive end Aaron Kampman said. “How you weather that, in a lot of ways, factors into the success of your season. Now, we obviously had a little skid there. Didn’t handle it the way we would have liked to. There’s a number of variables for that. But that’s in the past. We’ve got a two-game winning streak here, and we want to make it three.”

This will be first meeting between the Packers and Titans since Oct. 11, 2004, when Tennessee won 48-27 at Green Bay.
The Dallas Cowboys started the season strong, winning their first 3 games. Since then, they are 2-3.

KEY INJURIES (a/o 11/2)
Green Bay Packers
DOUBTFUL:
Linebacker Desmon Bishop (hamstring)
QUESTIONABLE:
Wide Receiver JOrdy Nelson (Ankle)
Tack Chad Clifton (knees), Defensive End Jason Hunter (hamstring), Linebacker
PROBABLE:
Danny Lansanah (hamstring), Quarterback Aaron Rodgers (right shoulder) and Cornerback Charles Woodson

Tennessee Titans
OUT:
Linebacker Colin Alfred (groin)
QUESTIONABLE:
Cornerback Chris Carr (back), Defensive End Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin)
PROBABLE:
Defensive End Dave Ball (concussion), Running Back Quinton Ganther (concussion)

KEYS TO THE GAME:
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers faces a Titans defense that kept the Colts’ big gains to a minimum and essentially took away Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. Titans RB Chris Johnson could have success against a Packers defense that ranks toward the bottom of the league in giving up an average of 141.9 rushing yards per game.

PICK PREDICTION: Packers 21 Titans 20
The Titans hadn’t played a worthy opponent until last week against the Colts. And if it weren’t for some key interceptions of Peyton Manning, things would have been completely different. The Packers are coming off a BYE week and are well rested.

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