December 27, 2010
The AFC Playoff Picture And Playoff Scenarios
While the NFC playoff picture is not so clear-cut, five of the six AFC playoff spots have been clinched in the NFL this week. But even with most of the AFC playoff picture determined, there are a few AFC playoff scenarios that need to be decided in week 17.
Before we look at those playoff scenarios, let’s recap the AFC action in week 16. The Patriots walloped the Bills 34-3, clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Steelers clinched a playoff spot on Thursday with a 27-3 win over the Panthers. The Ravens beat the Browns 20-10, also clinching a playoff spot. The Steelers and Ravens are both fighting for the same playoff scenario - the AFC North championship and a first-round bye in the playoffs. If both remain tied next week, Pittsburgh wins with the tiebreaker. The Jets lost to the Bears 38-34 but clinched an AFC wildcard spot with a Jaguar loss. The Chiefs clinched the AFC West with a 34-14 win over Broncos.
Going into this week, the Colts and Jaguars were both in the AFC playoff picture, tied for the AFC South division lead. But a Colts win and Jaguars loss gives the Colts the playoff edge. The Colts beat the Raiders 31-26, eliminating them the AFC playoff picture while the Jaguars lost to the Redskins in OT 20-17. A Colts win or Jaguars loss next week gives the Colts the AFC South championship. The Chargers 34-20 loss to the Bengals eliminates them from playoff contention.
Here is what the NFL playoff picture looks like in the AFC going into the last week of the NFL regular season:
- New England Patriots (13-2) have clinched the AFC East and home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) have clinched a playoff spot and can clinch the AFC North championship and a first-round bye with a win against the Browns next week in Cleveland.
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) have clinched the AFC West.
- Indianapolis Colts (9-6) holds the edge for grabbing the last AFC playoff spot. A Colts win or Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) loss next week gets them in the playoffs as the AFC South champions.
- Baltimore Ravens (11-4) have clinched a playoff spot and, at best, could end up with a first-round bye and the AFC North championship with a win and Steelers loss next week.
- New York Jets (10-5) have clinched an AFC wildcard spot.
So, who plays who in the first week of the AFC playoffs?
Well, assuming the Steelers beat the Browns next week and win the AFC North championship, the AFC playoff scenario would look like this…
- New England Patriots (AFC Playoff Seed 1) and Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC Playoff Seed 2) earn byes.
- New York Jets (AFC Playoff Seed 6) would play at Kansas City Chiefs (AFC Playoff Seed 3).
- Baltimore Ravens (AFC Playoff Seed 5) would play at Indianapolis Colts (AFC Playoff Seed 4).
What happens if the Steelers lose and the Jets and Ravens win next week?
In this AFC playoff scenario, the Steelers get a wildcard berth and get the 6th seed. The Jets, who hold the tiebreaker against the Steelers, would move up to the 5th seed. The Ravens would get the 2nd seed as the AFC North champion and receive a first round bye.
What is the playoff scenario if the Colts lose and the Jaguars win?
The Jaguars get the 4th seed and the Colts are eliminated.
The NFL playoff picture will be realized next week and all but one AFC playoff scenario will remain.
Sources: nfl.com, cbs.com, espn,com
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December 22, 2010
NFL Week 16 Schedule, Spreads and Predictions
With the NFL playoff picture cloudy with just two weeks left, winning in week 16 action is essential for the playoff contenders. NFL action expands to 4 games this week: Panthers - Steelers on Thursday, Cowboys - Cardinals Saturday, 13 games on Sunday and a great NFC matchup on Monday with the Saints against the Falcons.
Here are the spreads and predictions against-the spread (ATS) for Week 16 of the NFL season.
NFL THURSDAY, December 23, 2010
Panthers (+15) over STEELERS (Over/Under: 37)
A 15-point spread in an NFL game is just too much, especially when the favorite has already sewn up a playoff spot.
Take the Panthers and the points
NFL SATURDAY, December 25, 2010
Cowboys (-7) Over CARDINALS (Over/Under: 45)
With both teams out of the playoff picture, this game is big for Dallas’ interim coach Jason Garrett, who is trying to prove he has what it takes to be the Cowboys new head coach. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
The underachieving Cowboys should win by 10
NFL SUNDAY, December 26, 2010
Lions (+3.5) Over DOLPHINS (Over/Under: 41.5)
The Dolphin offense and QB Chad Henne have just been atrocious lately. The Lions are coming off a 2 game win streak. The Lions are 1-4 ATS and 8-4 ATS as the away underdog. The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
The Lions have gained confidence and will fry the Fish.
JAGUARS (-7) Over Redskins (Over/Under: 46)
In Week 15, the Redskins replaced QB Donovan McNabb with Rex Grossman but it still wasn’t enough to beat the NFC East, last place, Cowboys. The Jaguars are 4-0 as the ATS favorite and 4-0 ATS as a home favorite.
Go with the trend and the Jaguars
RAMS (-2.5) 0ver 49ers (Over/Under: 39.5)
Can you believe that a divisional leader has a 6-8 record? Well, that’s the story in the NFC West where the Rams and Seahawks share that record and the lead. The trends show the 49ers have the advantage, going 8-2 within the division while the Rams are 1-9 in December.
With the NFC Division title within grasp, you gotta go against the trends and take the Rams.
Patriots (-9) Over BILLS (Over/Under: 44)
In week 15 action, the Patriots needed a 4th quarter TD to get past the Packers. The Pats are assured at least a playoff spot but a win this week secures them the AFC East championship. After an 0-8 start, the Bills are 4-2. Straight up, the Bills are 1-18 in their last 19 meetings with the Patriots. The Patriots have lost their last two ATS.
Look for the Patriots to win big and on the winning side ATS.
Jets (+1) Over BEARS (Over/Under: 36.5)
The Bears are the NFC Division champs after Monday night’s blowout of the Packers (40-14). You can throw out all the trends and statistics in this one; the Bears can afford to rest their starters and the Jets need a win.
Take the Jets, period.
Ravens (-4) Over Browns (Over/Under: 39.5)
With the Pittsburgh Steelers assured a playoff spot, the Ravens need a win to stay in the AFC playoff picture. The Browns are 5-9 in 2010 and out of the playoffs. Expect the Ravens to stay on the ground and live off Rice (RB Ray Rice) this Sunday.
Take the Ravens – forget the points.
CHIEFS (-5) Over Titans (Over/Under: 42)
The Chiefs are 6-0 at home (SU) in 2010 and KC is a tough place to play. The Chiefs are better in the turnover department (+.03 vs .- 07) and the Titans are penalty prone. In addition, the Chiefs control their own destiny in the AFC West playoff race. A Chiefs (10-4) win combined with a San Diego loss (9-5) spells a divisional title for KC. KC QB Matt Cassel is back in form after an appendectomy.
Expect the Titans to have an “add-a-loss-to-me” this week ATS.
Texans (-3) Over BRONCOS (Over/Under: 48.5)
Neither of these two are in the AFC playoff picture and both teams have had a disappointing and underachieving year. The Texans are 4-9 ATS and the Broncos 4-10 ATS in 2010 - tough one to pick with nothing on the line.
Take the Texans giving 3.
Colts (-3) Over RAIDERS (Over/Under: 47)
The Colts, once again, find themselves in need of a win to stay in the NFL playoff race. The Raiders, for the first time in many years, have a chance (although very slim) in December of making the playoffs. Even with favorite WR Austin Collie on IR (concussion), never go again Peyton Manning with his back against the wall.
Take the Colts ATS to stay in the AFC playoff race
Chargers (-7.5) Over BENGALS (Over/Under: 44)
It seems that the Bengals have been out of the playoff picture for months. The surging Chargers still have chance at the playoffs with a few wins and a big slip up by the Chiefs
7 ½ points seems like a lot but not for Rivers and the hot Chargers.
Giants (NL) Over PACKERS (Over/Under: NL)
The Giants gotta be burning inside after theirs colossal collapse (forget the Joe Pisarcik – Eagles game) in the Meadowlands last week against the Eagles (L 38-31). Regardless of that outcome, the Giants control their own destiny in the NFC playoff race.
Doesn’t matter what the spread is in this game – the Giants win big and redeem themselves after their worst loss in team history.
EAGLES (NL) Over Vikings (Over/Under: NL)
Michael Vick’s performance against the Giants in week 15 is enough to make this game the lock of the week, regardless of the spread, especially after the Vikings getting routed by the Bears on Monday night (40-14).
Is Michael Vick the NFL MVP? Doesn’t matter in this contest – take the Eagles.
MONDAY, December 27, 2010
FALCONS (-3) Over Saints (Over/Under (48.5)
What a great Monday night game, and absolutely the best NFL matchup of week 16. Even though the Falcons are guaranteed a playoff spot, don’t expect a letup in their play.Simply, take the Falcons and QB Matt Ryan.
HOMETEAM IN CAPS
NL = No Line on the spread as of press time (espn, bodog.com, sportsinteraction.com, 5dimes.com, sdgglobal) SU = Straight Up ATS = Against the spread
Spreads as/of Wed. 12/22/10 12:00 pm EST
The results of Week 16 NFL action set the scene for the final NFL playoff picture.
Sources: bodog.com ,espn.com
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December 19, 2010
NFL Week 15 Spreads, Preview and Predictions
There are some really big matchups in the NFL this week; Jets play the Steelers, Eagles take on the Giants and the Jaguars versus the Colts. NFL Week 15 action will further shape the 2010 NFL playoff race.
Here is the NFL spreads, picks and predictions against-the-spread in Week 15 action for Sunday, December 19, 2010 and Monday, December 19, 2010.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (-3) Over Kansas City Chiefs
Three factors that influence this NFL pick. The Chiefs lost last week on the road in San Diego 31-0, they’re on the road again this week and QB Matt Cassell is questionable (appendectomy).
Over/Under: 42.5
TENNESSEE TITANS (PICK) Over Houston Texans
Although the Titans have lost 6 straight games, they are coming off extra rest while the Texans travel on short rest in this PICK-EM NFL matchup.
Over/Under: 47.5
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have rushed for more than 200 yards in their last three games but they’re facing a dangerous wounded animal, Peyton Manning, who faces playoff elimination with a loss. It doesn’t hurt that the Colts are playing home in Lucas Field.
Over/Under: 48
Arizona Cardinals (+3) Over CAROLINA PANTHERS
Two big statistics that influence this NFL pick, the Panthers are 1-12 Straight up and 3-10 Against-the-Spread this year in NFL action, and don’t forget, the Panthers are out of the NFL playoff picture.
Over/Under: 37
Cleveland Browns (+1) Over CINCINNATI BENGALS
How can a team (Bengals) that’s lost 10 in a row be the favorite? This battle of Ohio has no implications for the NFC playoffs in 2010.
Over/Under: 40
Buffalo Bills (+5) Over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Yes, the Dolphins beat the Jets last week but only because of their punter (500+ yards). The Fish’s QB Chad Henne gets worse and worse.
Over/Under: 40
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) Over Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Vick wishes he had the Giants “dogs” (running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs). The Giants are healthy, playing at home and the defensive line is playing the best it has all season. Michael Vick won’t be able to beat the Giants in a rematch that will probably decide the NFC East championship.
Over/Under 47.5
DALLAS COWBOYS (-7.5) Over Washington Redskins
It looks like Mike Shanahan and the Redskins have given up on QB Donovan McNabb while the Cowboys are giving their all for interim head coach Jason Garrett. The spread has widened as the week went on but it still won’t matter.
Over/Under: 44.5
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4.5) Over Detroit Lions
The Lions upset the Green Bay Packers last week, mainly due to the concussion of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. What are the chances of the Lions winning two in a row? – Zilch
Over/Under: 43
New Orleans Saints (+2) Over BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Saints have won 6 straight, beat the Rams 31-13 last week and are looking to be in the playoff race in 2010. Last week, the Ravens defense gave up 28 points in their 34-28 win over the Houston Texans. Expect Drew Brees to be the difference in this one.
Over/Under: 44.5
Atlanta Falcons (-7) Over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Falcons have the best record in the NFC (11-2) but may be looking ahead to next week’s battle against the Saints. On the other hand, the Seahawks lost big to the 49ers last week 40-21. Falcons should have no problems scoring and covering the spread.
Over/Under: 46
New York Jets (+4.5) Over PITTSBURGH STEELERS
How can we pick a team that hasn’t scored a touchdown in weeks? Let’s just say – a hunch; and that the “Green Wall-Gate” conspiracy has shifted the media focus off Jets recent poor offensive play. Another big factor is the Steelers defensive standout Troy Palomalu probably will not play due to injury.
Over/Under: 36
Denver Broncos (+8) Over OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Broncos have a new interim head coach and will seek revenge of the 59-14 loss at home to the Raider. Lets just say we’re picking the Broncos to cover the spread.
Over/Under: 42
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-14.5) Over Green Bay Packers
Nobody in their right mind would pick the Packers in this contest. Even with the Patriots already having secured a playoff spot and the Packers playing without QB Aaron Rodgers, the Pats will cover this HUGE spread.
Over/Under: 44
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+4) Over Chicago Bears
Let’s just say that Brett Favre plays great in outside in cold weather and the Vikings will be playing outside due to the snowball collapse at the Metrodome.
Over/Under: 45
HOMETEAM IN CAPS
Expect some great NFL action in Week 15 this weekend.
Sources: nfl.com, bodog.com
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