GAME INFO:
Teams: Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings
Game Date/Time: Sun, Jan 4, 2009 4:30 pm EST
Location: Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV: FOX

THE TEAMS
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the season 9-6-1. They averaged 26 a game while giving up 18 points a game. They were 2-4 in the NFC East and 7-5 in the NFC.

Eagles QB Donovan McNabb has been on a tear recently. He has thrown 23 TDs and 3916 yards in 2008. Running Back Brian Westbrook and Wide Receiver DeSean Jackson lead the Eagles offense.

The Minnesota Vikings finished in first place in the NFC East with a record of 10-6. They have scored a liitle more than 23 points a game while giving up on average 21 points a game.

The Vikings are led by QB Gus Frerotte (12 TDS and 2157 yards), running back Adrian Peterson (10 TDs and 1760 yards) and wide receiver Bernard Berrian (7 TDs and 964 yards).

THE LINE
The Philadelphia Eagles are favorite by 3 points (-3) with the Over/Under of 41 points

AGAINST THE SPREAD 2008 REGULAR SEASON
The Eagles are 10-6 Overall ATS, 8-4 against conference opponents and 4-4 in road games. They are 8-5 as the favorite and 0-1 as the road favorite.

The Vikings are 6-10 Overall ATS and 4-8 against conference opponents. They are 3-5 in home games, 3-5 as the underdog and 0-1 as the underdog at home

THE PREVIEW
This is an extremely close game in simulations with the Eagles winning just under 51 percent of the simulations. The key to the game is turnovers. The Vikings nearly missed the playoffs because of their fumbling problems. The Eagles made the playoffs because the play-making defense forced three turnovers including 2 forced fumbles last week. If the Eagles force two or more turnovers their chances increase from 51 to 61 percent. However, if the Vikings hold onto the ball and have no more than 1 turnover they are favored winning 63 percent of these simulations. Another key is the Vikings run defense which is arguably the best when at full strength. However, since Pat Williams missed the last two games of the season they allowed 70 yards and 1 TD to Michael Turner and 77 yards on 5.1 ypc to Derrick Ward. Their last 2 opponents ran for over 100 yards on the Vikings defense. While Brian Westbrook is only averaging 3.4 ypc it is up from the 2.8 he averages if the Vikings were at full strength defensively. If Westbrook has at least 50 rushing yards the Eagles have a 67 percent chance of winning. If he is under 50 yards the Eagles win just 36 percent of the time. Adrian Peterson is averaging over 110 rushing yards per sim, but he is averaging twice as many lost fumbles as Westbrook. It will be vitally important for Peterson to hold onto the ball.

THE PREDICTION
Philadelphia Eagles 21 Minnesota Vikings 10

The Eagles started the season slowly and looked like they were out of playoff contention. QB Donovan McNabb was benched for a game. When he came back, so did the Eagles. But the Eagles defense is as good as any team right now. They come off a 44-6 pounding of the Dallas Cowboys to get into the playoffs. The Vikings don’t have a chance

sources: espn, fox sports, cbs sports, nbc sports

GAME INFO

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
Game Date/Time:  Sun, Jan 4, 2009 1:00 pm EST 
Location: Dolphi Stadium
TV: CBS

THE TEAMS
The Baltimore Ravens finished behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North with a 11-5 record.  They have scored 347 points and given up 223.  The Ravens are known for their tenacious defense lead by Ray Lewis. But they have a rookie QB from University of Delaware named Joe Flacco who has thrown for 14 TDs and 2971 yards.

The Miami Dolphins won the AFC East division with a record of 11-5. In week 17 their win over the New York Jets knocked out the NY Jets and NE Patriots from playoff contention. The Dolphins have scored 345 point and given up 317 in 2008.

The Dolphins are led by Chad Pennington, the QB that the Jets threw away in favor of Brett Favre.  Chad was the runner up for MVP contention but was not even selected for the pro bowl while Favre, who threw 22 interceptions, was selected to the Bowl.

THE LINE
Baltimore Ravens are favored by 3 points (-3) and the Over/Under is 38 points

AGAINST THE SPREAD
The Ravens are 12-4 Straight up in 2008 and 12-4 ATS. They are 6-1 as the favorite ATS and 6-2 in road games ATS
They are 9-3 against conference opponents and 10-3 in games played on a grass field and 6-2 in games where the line is +3 to -3.

The Dolphins are 11-5 Straight up and 8-8 ATS in 2008. They are 6-3 as underdog ATS and 2-6 in home games ATS. They are 8-4 against conference opponents and 5-3 in games where the line is +3 to -3.

THE PREVIEW
The Ravens defense is well designed to beat a team like the Dolphins. They stop the run (Ronnie Brown had 27 yards on 13 carries in Week 7 vs BAL) and are only really vulnerable to accurate downfield passers. Chad Pennington is very accurate but he does most of his work on short passes. Look for the Ravens LBs and DBs limiting yards after the catch so even if Chad Pennington completes 60 percent of his passes as forecasted, his yards per attempt is a shade over 6. Joe Flacco meanwhile has taken off the training wheels and begun to take advantage of his strong arm. His yards per attempt is up from 6.6 in his first 11 games to 7.6 his past 5 games despite his completion percentage going down from 62 percent to 57 percent. The combination of big passing plays and a grinding power running game is why Baltimore is scoring 20 points per sim, 3 better than the Dolphins. If LeRon McClain has 50+ yards the Ravens chances increase to 71 percent. The Dolphins can win if they force turnovers. When Joe Flacco has at least 1 interception and the Dolphins force at least 2 total turnovers they pull ahead winning 56 percent of these simulations

THE PREDICTION
Baltimore Ravens 17  Miami Dolphins 7

The Baltimore defense will again be the factor in another Raven win.  Even though two Raven Wide Receivers are questionable for the game (Mark Clayton Derrick Mason), the running attack of Le’Ron McClain (902 yds on 232 yards and 10 TDs) will be enough for the Ravens to control the ball and score enough points to win.

Even the Ravens record on the betting line (0-8 Against the spread away and 1-7 ATS as the favorite) expect the Ravens to win.