November 25, 2010
Packers Falcons NFL Pro Football Preview and Prediction
The Green Bay Packers head south to take on the Atlanta Falcons in what some experts consider the best game in the NFL this week.
Atlanta leads the NFC South at 8-2 while the Packers are tied for the lead in the NFC North (with the Chicago Bears).
| PACKERS FALCONS: GAME DAY PARTICULARS | |
| Visitors | Green Bay Packers (7-3) |
| Home | Atlanta Falcons (8-2) |
| When | Sunday Nov 28 01:00 pm EST |
| Where | Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA |
| TV | FOX |
| Favorite | Falcons -2 |
| Under/Over | 47.5 |
PACKERS FALCONS PREVIEW
The Falcons and Packers have a lot in common. They’re both atop their respective divisions, have a 4 game winning streak, feature a strong-armed quarterback and have ferocious defenses hell-bent on causing
The Falcons, at 8-2, have the best record in the NFC and own a 1 game lead over the New Orleans and Tampa Bay in the NFC South. The Packers (7-3) share the lead in the NFC North with the Chicago Bears.
The Falcons, winners of eight of nine, are averaging 31.5 points during a four-game winning streak, keyed by the play of Ryan.
In his last four games, Ryan is averaging 275.8 yards with nine touchdowns and only one interception. 3 of those 4 games he had a Quarterback Rating over 100. The Falcons are 14-0 when Ryan’s passer rating is over 100.
The Packers have been decimated by injuries earlier in the season and their ground game still struggles following the season-ending injury to running back Ryan Grant in Week 1. But QB Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack has lead the way in their 4 game win streak, averaging 28.3 points.
Last week Rodgers threw for a career high 4 TDs in a 31-3 win against The Vikings. Three of those touchdowns went to Greg Jennings, who has 32 receptions for 520 yards and six TDs over his past five games.
The Packers are also winning with a defense that has limited its last three opponents to 10 total points while registering nine takeaways. Green Bay, tied with Chicago for the NFL’s top scoring defense at 14.6 points, is plus-10 in turnover margin during the winning streak.
The Falcons are also doing a good job of winning the turnover battle with a defense that is tied for second in the NFL with 15 interceptions. Atlanta is second in the NFL in turnover margin at plus-10, and is 17-1 when winning the turnover battle in three years under coach Mike Smith.
Remarkably, the Falcons have an even better winning percentage by simply take the field at the Georgia Dome with Ryan in the lineup. Ryan is 18-1 all-time at the Georgia Dome and has won 14 straight starts there since a 24-20 loss to Denver on Nov. 16, 2008.
Running back Michael Turner, who rushed for 131 yards for his fifth 100-yard game of the season last week, has also been at his best in Atlanta. In three years with the Falcons, Turner is averaging 101.3 rushing yards with 22 touchdowns in 18 games at the Georgia Dome.
Turner had 121 yards on 26 carries with a TD in Atlanta’s last game against the Packers, a 27-24 road win on Oct. 5, 2008, and could be poised for another big game. Green Bay has been a bit shaky against the run, allowing an average of 119.4 yards in its last five contests.
Rodgers threw for 313 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in the last meeting, while Ryan passed for 194 yards with two touchdowns and a pick.
PACKERS FALCONS TRENDS AND RANKINGS
| PACKERS FALCONS: GAME DAY TRENDS |
| ATLANTA is 12-4 ATS in dome games over the last 2 seasons |
| ATLANTA is 7-19 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992 |
| ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons |
| ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons |
| PACKERS are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games |
| Falcons Matt Ryan is 18-1 all-time at the Georgia Dome and has won 14 straight starts there since a 24-20 loss to Denver on Nov. 16, 2008 |
| Packers OFFENSE Ranking | Falcons DEFENSE Ranking | ||
| Rush Yds/Gms | 100.5 19th | Rush Yds/Gms | 95.4 6th |
| Pass Yds/Gms | 247.1 11th | Pass Yds/Gms | 242.1 24th |
| Tot Yds/Gms | 347.6 13th | Tot Yds/Gms | 339.5 17th |
| Falcons OFFENSE Ranking | Packers DEFENSE Ranking | ||
| Rush Yds/Gms | 129.0 18th | Rush Yds/Gms | 112.1 18th |
| Pass Yds/Gms | 242.2 13th | Pass Yds/Gms | 211.3 11th |
| Tot Yds/Gms | 371.4 6th | Tot Yds/Gms | 323.4 12th |
PACKERS FALCONS INJURIES
| Green Bay Packers Injury Notables | |||
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status |
| Atari Bigby | SS | Hamstring | Out |
| Donald Driver | WR | Quadricep | Questionable |
| Korey Hall | FB | Back | Questionable |
| Ryan Pickett | DE | Ankle | Questionable |
| Atlanta Falcons Injury Notables | |||
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status |
| John Abraham | DE | Groin | Questionable |
| Sean Weatherspoon | LB | Knee | Questionable |
* Players listed as Probable not listed
PACKERS FALCONS GAME PREDICTION
Although the Falcons have won 8 out of their last 9 and Matt Ryan is 18-1 all-time at the Georgia Dome and has won 14 straight starts, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers continue to get healthier.
Expect the Ryan string of wins to end.
The Packer defense will come up with some big stops and turnovers.
PACKERS 31 FALCONS 28
Source: foxsports.com, thespread.com, wagertracker.com, cbssports.com
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January 10, 2010
NFC Wildcard Sunday - Close Call - Cardinals
The NFC wildcard Sunday game will be played in the desert between the NFC West champion Arizona Cardinals and NFC wild card Green Bay Packers. The winner of this game gets to play next week in round two of the NFC playoffs. Based on our analysis, the Arizona Cardinals will win the game that will be decided by a field goal in the final two minutes. Lets size up the two teams. The betting line on the game is a Pickem. Over/under is 47 points.
The Green Bay Packers are lead by QB Aaron Rodgers. He has proven that he is a top-tier quarterback. He also has a deep, talented group of receivers. Expect the Pack to throw the football, especially in the area covered by Arizona CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who is nursing a knee injury.
The Cardinals counter with a great passing attack of their own. QB Kurt Warner to WR Larry Fitzgerald made sweet music together in 2008 but not as sweet in 2009. WR Anquan Boldin will be at less than 100% with ankle and knee injuries.
The running attack of the both the Packers and Cardinals are average at best but the Packers get the slight edge, especially if Rodgers is successful through the air - it will make their running game that much more effective.
This matchup is the hardest of the 4 NFL wildcard games to predict. But based on the experience of Cardinals QB Kurt Warner, them playing at home and their post-season experience in 2008 (making it all the way to the Superbowl) - we give the edge to the Cardinals.
Thenflthisweek.com prediction:
Cardinals 25 Packers 21
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January 6, 2010
Top 10 NFL Teams Wild Card Weekend
Thenflthisweek.com has ranked the top 10 NFL teams going into the NFL Playoffs and Wild Card Weekend. Factors that were used in determining the top 10 include: regular season record, momentum, critical injuries, offensive and defensive stats, coaching and intangibles.
1. Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
Although the Colts lost the last two games after winning 14 in a row, they are poised to go far in the 2010 NFL playoffs. Superstar QB Peyton Manning has already won a Superbowl and is always Mr. Clutch. They have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and will benefit from the bye-week. And don’t be misled by the fact they are ranked last in the entire NFL in rushing (#18 defense overall)- it’s their passing game that ranks them #1 in our rankings and passing ability has been the key for the top ranked NFL teams.
2. San Diego Chargers (13-3)
The Chargers high powered passing game is the reason for them being ranked in the number 2 spot. QB Phillip Rivers has thrown for 28 TDs and 104.4 QB rating. Just above the Colts, they have the second worst ranking in the rushing category (#16 overall defense. They have the #10 ranked offense.
3. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
The Cowboys have been impressive over the second half of the season and even owner Jerry Jones hasn’t been able to find anything to be mad at. QB Tony Romo has been extremely effective and the Cowboys are clicking on all cylinders. The Cowboys are ranked #2 in Total Offense in the entire NFL. The Cowboys defense is ranked #9 in the entire NFL. But what puts the Cowboys at #3 is they have their confidence back.
4. New Orleans Saints (13-3)
The Saints are #1 in the NFL in total offense and QB Drew Brees has thrown for 34 TDs and only 11 Interceptions - his QB rating is 109.6. They have three effective rushers in Mike Bell (654 yds 5 TDs), Pierre Thomas (793 yds, 6 TDs) and Reggie Bush (390 yds, 5 TDs). However, the Saints offense is tempered by their defensive ranking of 25th in the NFL. The Saints have slid to #4 in our NFL ranking because they have lost their last three games.
5. New England Patriots (10-6)
What can say about the Patriots. They have arguably, the best coach in the game; combine that with the history of future hall-of-famer Tom Brady and you have a team that ranks at the top in the NFL. The Pats are ranked #3 in total offense and #11 in total defense. In ranking the Pats, the uncertainty of the health of formidable receiver Wes Welker puts them in the #5 spot.
6. New York Jets (9-7)
Surprised? Shouldn’t be! Although the Colts and Bengal fans may feel that the Jets won those games because their opponents had nothing to play for. Regardless, the Jets are hitting their stride and are managing the play of rookie QB - Mark Sanchez just enough to avoid his rookie mistakes. The Jets are ranked #1 in Rushing and #1 in total defense in the entire NFL. The Jets do belong!
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
You don’t hear much about the abilities of the Green Bay Packers but they are for real. They have the #6 ranked offense and #2 ranked defense - very impressive stats. QB Aaron Rogers hsa thrown for 30 TDs and only 7 Interceptions with a 103.2 QB ranking. Their rushing attack is led by Ryan Grant (1253 yds, 11 TDs). Donald Driver (70 recs, 1061 yds, 7 TDs) and Greg Jennings (68 recs, 1113 yds, 4 TDs) are the 1-2 punch of the Packers passing game.
8. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
The Vikings are led by 20-year NFL veteran Brett Favre. They are ranked #5 in total offense and #6 in total defense - an excellent balance. Early in the season the Vikings defense were just outstanding. However, the season ending injury to E.J Henderson has made the defense more vulnerable. Although the Vikings won their last game against the “lay-down” Giants, in their 3 previous games Brett threw 4 TDs and 3 Interceptions and Adrian Peterson didn’t have a 100 yard game. The Vikings are vulnerable and that’s the reason for their position in thenflthisweek.com ranking. And don’t forget the Brad Childress - Brett Favre episode that happened a few weeks ago. If you think it’s over - think again. There is a power struggle in Minnesota!
9. Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
The NFL top ranked teams all have one thing in common - great QBs, and Kurt Warner is no exception. The Cards offense and defensive numbers aren’t that impressive (#14 total offense, #20 total defense), but they have two proven wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald (97 recs, 1092 yds 13 TDs) and Anquan Boldin (84 recs, 1024 yds, 4 TDs).
10. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
The Eagles have had an impressive season and added some creativity to their offense with the addition of Michael Vick. The Eagles, like all NFC East teams pride themselves on great defense. They have the #11 ranked offense and #12 ranked defense, putting them in top third of the league. Although the Eagles won’t beat the Cowboys in the Wild card weekend game, they are our number 10 ranked team.
There is one commonality of the top 10 ranked teams going into the 2010 NFL playoffs. A great QB and a top ranked passing game. And as long the defense is mediocre in passing defense, being the worst against the rush hasn’t mattered.
source: nfl.com
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