On Thursday, December 11, we predicted the Bears would win 24-20. The Bears did win in overtime by a final score of 27-24. The Bears were favorited by 3 points and our pick resulted in a push.  In our last 8 NFL picks we are 7-0-1 against the spread.  An pretty impressive record. 

In our best bet pick for Sunday, December 14 - Week 15 of the NFL football season, we are picking the San Francisco 49ers over the Miami Dolphins.

GAME INFO
Teams: San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, Dec 14, 2008
Kickoff: 1:00 pm EST
Teams: Location: Dolphin Stadium, Miami Florida
TV: Fox

THE LINE (Daily Line for Saturday, December 13)
The CURRENT line of 3 of 4 top bookmakers favorites the Dolphins by 6 points. (1 bookmaker has the Dolphins giving up 7 points)
All four of the bookmakers share the CURRENT Under/Over points line of 41 1/2

THE MATCHUP
The 49ers are 5-8 overall, 2-4 on the road, 2-3 in the NFC West and 3-7 in the NFC
The Dolhpins are 8-5 overall, 4-3 at home, 3-2 in the AFC Eat and 6-4 in the AFC

LAST WEEK
The Dolphins beat the Buffalo Bills by the score of 16-3.  The defeat of the Bills practically eliminated them from the post season with a record of 6-7.

The San Francisco 49ers beat the New York Jets 24-14.  An impressive win for the 49ers and their interim coach Mike Singletary. 

AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS)
49ers
6-7 ATS Overall
3-3 ATS away
4-6 ATS as underdog
3-3 ATS as an away underdog

Dolphins
6-7 ATS Overall
2-5 ATS at home
0-4 ATS as favorite
0-3 ATS as a home favorite

PREVIEW
The San Francisco 49ers are playing hard for interim coach - Mike Singletary.  These last few games will make the difference in him backing back as the full-time coach next year.  The 49ers QB change to Shaun Hill has paid off.  It has made the offense more balanced. He has thrown for 11 touchdowns and with only 4 interceptions.

The Miami Dolphins are coming off a 1-15 season and have made a tremendous turnaround by acquiring QB Chad Pennington, who was released by the Jets after the signing of Bred Favre.  Both those teams are benefitting from the moves.  Miami’s the long misunderstood, ganja smoking, previously suspended running back Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown have led a successful running attack for the Dolphins this year.

KEYS TO THE GAME
The San Francisco 49ers are out of the post season but they are playing hard for Mike Singletary. Last week they beat the AFC East leading New York Jets 24-14.  They played tenacious defense and scored enough points to win.   This week the 49ers play another AFC East team in the Miami Dolphins.

If the 49ers Frank Gore is healthy and can run for a 100 yards, the Dolphins are in for a rough day. On the flip side, if Ricky Williams and Chad Pennington both have big games, the 49ers will fall short.
INJURIES (as of 12/12/08)
49ers
Arnax Battle WR (foot) is OUT
Frank Core RB (ankle) is QUESTIONABLE
Nate Clemens CB (thumb) and Josh Morgan WR (groin) are PROBABLE

Dolphins
No Injuries

PREDICTION
Miami Dolphins 21, San Francisco 49ers 17

We cannot believe that the current line favors the Miami Dolphins by 7 points.  The 49ers are playing for respect and believe in their coach - Mike Singletary.  Although the Dolphins are tied with the Jets and the Patriots, we just can’t see them winning by more than 7 points. We emphasize the point that both teams a little of 21 points a game.  

The QB situation is also a major reason for our prediction.  49ers QB Shaun Hill has thrown 10 TDS with only 4 interceptions while Dolphins QB, Chad Pennington has thrown for 8 TDS but thrown 11 interceptions - not good!

Finally, the Dolphins “reverse-perfect” record against the spread: ATS favorite (0-4) and a home ATS favorite (0-3) record make this an obvious best bet for the week.

But this is NFL football and anything can happpen (especially with the officiating these days).