January 18, 2009
Pay Off Your House: Put Your Money On The Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are destined to join their baseball counterparts, the Philadelphia Phillies, and add another championship to the city of brother love. On Sunday, January 18, 2009, the Eagles will dominate the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship game and head to the Super Bowl XLIII.
The Eagles convincingly defeated their NFC rival, New York Giants, last week to advance the NFC Championship.
Tomorrow, expect the Eagles defense to be in the face of the Cardinals QB, Kurt Warner and hold one of the most explosive passing games in the NFL to single digit points. The Eagles QB, Donovan McNabb and running back Brian Westbrook will do enough to take them to the Super Bowl.
Date: Sunday, January 18, 2009 3:00 PM EST
Location: U of Phoenix, Glendale, AZ TV: FOX
THE SPREAD
The Eagles are the favorite by 4 points. Over/Under is 49 1/2 points.
GAME PREVIEW AND TRENDS
In the last meeting between the two teams, the Eagles dominated on Thanksgiving Day 48-20.That victory provided a spark for the Eagles, as they won four of their last five regular season games, outscoring opponents by an average of 23.0 points in those wins.
Philadelphia still needed help in Week 17 to make the playoffs, and it has taken full advantage of its opportunity.
The Eagles trounced Dallas 44-6 in their regular-season finale to clinch the No. 6 seed, then beat Minnesota 26-14 in a wild-card game before defeating the New York Giants 23-11 in last Sunday’s divisional game.
While that Thanksgiving win got Philadelphia’s season back on track, Arizona’s loss led to an awful late-season finish for what is historically one of the league’s worst franchises.
The Cardinals dropped four of their last six regular season games. Their only wins in that span came against St. Louis and Seattle - teams which combined for a 6-26 record - and they were outscored by an average of 24.3 points in those losses.
Although it won the weak NFC West and had won only two playoff games in their history prior to this season, the Cardinals have been at their best in this postseason and now become the first No. 4 seed to host a conference championship game.
They had been the only NFC team not to play in one since the 1970 merger before pulling off a win few saw coming. Arizona traveled to Carolina for last Sunday’s divisional game as a 10-point underdog, but raced to a 27-7 halftime lead en route to a 33-13 win over the Panthers, the league’s only unbeaten team at home in the regular season.
“Not many people had very nice things to say about us and didn’t give us a chance,” Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt said. “We believe in ourselves. I like being the underdog, and we’re going to continue to be the underdog.”
Arizona will be the underdog again, as oddsmakers made the Eagles as 4 point favorites.
The Cardinals are 7-2 at home this season, including a 30-24 win over Atlanta in the wild-card round, but Philadelphia is not going to be intimidated.
After winning just three road games during the regular season, the Eagles have had no trouble playing away from Philadelphia in the postseason. They’ve already won at the Metrodome, where the Vikings were 6-2 during the regular season, and at Giants Stadium, where New York was 7-1.
Philadelphia had success at Minnesota and against the Giants thanks to a swarming, suffocating defense.
The Eagles have forced five turnovers and allowed 322 passing yards in the postseason. Philadelphia had the league’s third-ranked defense during the regular season (274.3 yards per game), and has allowed just four TDs in the past six games.
“We’re going to be close in every game because we aren’t going to give up those type of big plays and hopefully that gives the offense confidence to make whatever call they want whenever they want to call it because they trust us not to give up a lot of points,” Pro Bowl safety Brian Dawkins said.
Shutting down Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald may not be as easy.
The Cardinals thrive on big plays behind Kurt Warner and Fitzgerald. They hooked up for a 42-yard touchdown in Arizona’s wild-card win and a 29-yard TD last week.
The Eagles, though, did a solid job of slowing down Warner and Fitzgerald in their Thanksgiving meeting. Warner threw for three touchdowns but also had three interceptions, while Fitzgerald was held to five catches for 65 yards, though he did score twice.
Last week, Fitzgerald set a team playoff record with 166 yards receiving even though Warner was missing one of his deep threats in wide receiver Anquan Boldin.
Boldin, nursing a strained left hamstring, returned to practice this week and said he will play Sunday.
While Arizona relies on its high-scoring offense, the Cardinals defense has surprisingly stepped up in the playoffs. Arizona was 19th in total defense during the regular season (331.5 ypg), but has limited its two playoff opponents to an average of 259.5 yards.
The Cardinals held Atlanta’s Michael Turner, the No. 2 rusher in the regular season, to 42 yards and Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams, the league’s No. 3 rusher, to 63 yards. Arizona also intercepted Jake Delhomme five times last week, and has forced nine turnovers in the playoffs.
“We feel like we’re a solid defense,” Cardinals defensive end Bertrand Berry said. “We have some guys out here who can make plays. It’s just a matter of putting it all together for 60 minutes on Sunday. If we can do that, the sky’s the limit.”
Arizona had no answer for Philadelphia’s Brian Westbrook on Thanksgiving, though, as the versatile running back rushed for 110 yards on 22 carries and scored a career-high four touchdowns - two rushing and two receiving.
Westbrook hasn’t been much of a factor on the ground in the playoffs, as he has rushed for just 74 yards on 38 carries. He did come up with a big play in the fourth quarter of the wild-card win, though, scoring a 71-yard touchdown off a screen pass.
GAME PREDICTION
Philadelphia Eagles 21 Arizona Cardinals 3
sources: nfl.com, espn.com, thespread.com, fox.com
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GAME INFO:
Teams: Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings
Game Date/Time: Sun, Jan 4, 2009 4:30 pm EST
Location: Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV: FOX
THE TEAMS
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the season 9-6-1. They averaged 26 a game while giving up 18 points a game. They were 2-4 in the NFC East and 7-5 in the NFC.
Eagles QB Donovan McNabb has been on a tear recently. He has thrown 23 TDs and 3916 yards in 2008. Running Back Brian Westbrook and Wide Receiver DeSean Jackson lead the Eagles offense.
The Minnesota Vikings finished in first place in the NFC East with a record of 10-6. They have scored a liitle more than 23 points a game while giving up on average 21 points a game.
The Vikings are led by QB Gus Frerotte (12 TDS and 2157 yards), running back Adrian Peterson (10 TDs and 1760 yards) and wide receiver Bernard Berrian (7 TDs and 964 yards).
THE LINE
The Philadelphia Eagles are favorite by 3 points (-3) with the Over/Under of 41 points
AGAINST THE SPREAD 2008 REGULAR SEASON
The Eagles are 10-6 Overall ATS, 8-4 against conference opponents and 4-4 in road games. They are 8-5 as the favorite and 0-1 as the road favorite.
The Vikings are 6-10 Overall ATS and 4-8 against conference opponents. They are 3-5 in home games, 3-5 as the underdog and 0-1 as the underdog at home
THE PREVIEW
This is an extremely close game in simulations with the Eagles winning just under 51 percent of the simulations. The key to the game is turnovers. The Vikings nearly missed the playoffs because of their fumbling problems. The Eagles made the playoffs because the play-making defense forced three turnovers including 2 forced fumbles last week. If the Eagles force two or more turnovers their chances increase from 51 to 61 percent. However, if the Vikings hold onto the ball and have no more than 1 turnover they are favored winning 63 percent of these simulations. Another key is the Vikings run defense which is arguably the best when at full strength. However, since Pat Williams missed the last two games of the season they allowed 70 yards and 1 TD to Michael Turner and 77 yards on 5.1 ypc to Derrick Ward. Their last 2 opponents ran for over 100 yards on the Vikings defense. While Brian Westbrook is only averaging 3.4 ypc it is up from the 2.8 he averages if the Vikings were at full strength defensively. If Westbrook has at least 50 rushing yards the Eagles have a 67 percent chance of winning. If he is under 50 yards the Eagles win just 36 percent of the time. Adrian Peterson is averaging over 110 rushing yards per sim, but he is averaging twice as many lost fumbles as Westbrook. It will be vitally important for Peterson to hold onto the ball.
THE PREDICTION
Philadelphia Eagles 21 Minnesota Vikings 10
The Eagles started the season slowly and looked like they were out of playoff contention. QB Donovan McNabb was benched for a game. When he came back, so did the Eagles. But the Eagles defense is as good as any team right now. They come off a 44-6 pounding of the Dallas Cowboys to get into the playoffs. The Vikings don’t have a chance
sources: espn, fox sports, cbs sports, nbc sports
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