GAME INFO

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
Game Date/Time:  Sun, Jan 4, 2009 1:00 pm EST 
Location: Dolphi Stadium
TV: CBS

THE TEAMS
The Baltimore Ravens finished behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North with a 11-5 record.  They have scored 347 points and given up 223.  The Ravens are known for their tenacious defense lead by Ray Lewis. But they have a rookie QB from University of Delaware named Joe Flacco who has thrown for 14 TDs and 2971 yards.

The Miami Dolphins won the AFC East division with a record of 11-5. In week 17 their win over the New York Jets knocked out the NY Jets and NE Patriots from playoff contention. The Dolphins have scored 345 point and given up 317 in 2008.

The Dolphins are led by Chad Pennington, the QB that the Jets threw away in favor of Brett Favre.  Chad was the runner up for MVP contention but was not even selected for the pro bowl while Favre, who threw 22 interceptions, was selected to the Bowl.

THE LINE
Baltimore Ravens are favored by 3 points (-3) and the Over/Under is 38 points

AGAINST THE SPREAD
The Ravens are 12-4 Straight up in 2008 and 12-4 ATS. They are 6-1 as the favorite ATS and 6-2 in road games ATS
They are 9-3 against conference opponents and 10-3 in games played on a grass field and 6-2 in games where the line is +3 to -3.

The Dolphins are 11-5 Straight up and 8-8 ATS in 2008. They are 6-3 as underdog ATS and 2-6 in home games ATS. They are 8-4 against conference opponents and 5-3 in games where the line is +3 to -3.

THE PREVIEW
The Ravens defense is well designed to beat a team like the Dolphins. They stop the run (Ronnie Brown had 27 yards on 13 carries in Week 7 vs BAL) and are only really vulnerable to accurate downfield passers. Chad Pennington is very accurate but he does most of his work on short passes. Look for the Ravens LBs and DBs limiting yards after the catch so even if Chad Pennington completes 60 percent of his passes as forecasted, his yards per attempt is a shade over 6. Joe Flacco meanwhile has taken off the training wheels and begun to take advantage of his strong arm. His yards per attempt is up from 6.6 in his first 11 games to 7.6 his past 5 games despite his completion percentage going down from 62 percent to 57 percent. The combination of big passing plays and a grinding power running game is why Baltimore is scoring 20 points per sim, 3 better than the Dolphins. If LeRon McClain has 50+ yards the Ravens chances increase to 71 percent. The Dolphins can win if they force turnovers. When Joe Flacco has at least 1 interception and the Dolphins force at least 2 total turnovers they pull ahead winning 56 percent of these simulations

THE PREDICTION
Baltimore Ravens 17  Miami Dolphins 7

The Baltimore defense will again be the factor in another Raven win.  Even though two Raven Wide Receivers are questionable for the game (Mark Clayton Derrick Mason), the running attack of Le’Ron McClain (902 yds on 232 yards and 10 TDs) will be enough for the Ravens to control the ball and score enough points to win.

Even the Ravens record on the betting line (0-8 Against the spread away and 1-7 ATS as the favorite) expect the Ravens to win.