GAME INFO

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
Game Date/Time:  Sun, Jan 4, 2009 1:00 pm EST 
Location: Dolphi Stadium
TV: CBS

THE TEAMS
The Baltimore Ravens finished behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North with a 11-5 record.  They have scored 347 points and given up 223.  The Ravens are known for their tenacious defense lead by Ray Lewis. But they have a rookie QB from University of Delaware named Joe Flacco who has thrown for 14 TDs and 2971 yards.

The Miami Dolphins won the AFC East division with a record of 11-5. In week 17 their win over the New York Jets knocked out the NY Jets and NE Patriots from playoff contention. The Dolphins have scored 345 point and given up 317 in 2008.

The Dolphins are led by Chad Pennington, the QB that the Jets threw away in favor of Brett Favre.  Chad was the runner up for MVP contention but was not even selected for the pro bowl while Favre, who threw 22 interceptions, was selected to the Bowl.

THE LINE
Baltimore Ravens are favored by 3 points (-3) and the Over/Under is 38 points

AGAINST THE SPREAD
The Ravens are 12-4 Straight up in 2008 and 12-4 ATS. They are 6-1 as the favorite ATS and 6-2 in road games ATS
They are 9-3 against conference opponents and 10-3 in games played on a grass field and 6-2 in games where the line is +3 to -3.

The Dolphins are 11-5 Straight up and 8-8 ATS in 2008. They are 6-3 as underdog ATS and 2-6 in home games ATS. They are 8-4 against conference opponents and 5-3 in games where the line is +3 to -3.

THE PREVIEW
The Ravens defense is well designed to beat a team like the Dolphins. They stop the run (Ronnie Brown had 27 yards on 13 carries in Week 7 vs BAL) and are only really vulnerable to accurate downfield passers. Chad Pennington is very accurate but he does most of his work on short passes. Look for the Ravens LBs and DBs limiting yards after the catch so even if Chad Pennington completes 60 percent of his passes as forecasted, his yards per attempt is a shade over 6. Joe Flacco meanwhile has taken off the training wheels and begun to take advantage of his strong arm. His yards per attempt is up from 6.6 in his first 11 games to 7.6 his past 5 games despite his completion percentage going down from 62 percent to 57 percent. The combination of big passing plays and a grinding power running game is why Baltimore is scoring 20 points per sim, 3 better than the Dolphins. If LeRon McClain has 50+ yards the Ravens chances increase to 71 percent. The Dolphins can win if they force turnovers. When Joe Flacco has at least 1 interception and the Dolphins force at least 2 total turnovers they pull ahead winning 56 percent of these simulations

THE PREDICTION
Baltimore Ravens 17  Miami Dolphins 7

The Baltimore defense will again be the factor in another Raven win.  Even though two Raven Wide Receivers are questionable for the game (Mark Clayton Derrick Mason), the running attack of Le’Ron McClain (902 yds on 232 yards and 10 TDs) will be enough for the Ravens to control the ball and score enough points to win.

Even the Ravens record on the betting line (0-8 Against the spread away and 1-7 ATS as the favorite) expect the Ravens to win.

On Thursday, December 11, we predicted the Bears would win 24-20. The Bears did win in overtime by a final score of 27-24. The Bears were favorited by 3 points and our pick resulted in a push.  In our last 8 NFL picks we are 7-0-1 against the spread.  An pretty impressive record. 

In our best bet pick for Sunday, December 14 – Week 15 of the NFL football season, we are picking the San Francisco 49ers over the Miami Dolphins.

GAME INFO
Teams: San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, Dec 14, 2008
Kickoff: 1:00 pm EST
Teams: Location: Dolphin Stadium, Miami Florida
TV: Fox

THE LINE (Daily Line for Saturday, December 13)
The CURRENT line of 3 of 4 top bookmakers favorites the Dolphins by 6 points. (1 bookmaker has the Dolphins giving up 7 points)
All four of the bookmakers share the CURRENT Under/Over points line of 41 1/2

THE MATCHUP
The 49ers are 5-8 overall, 2-4 on the road, 2-3 in the NFC West and 3-7 in the NFC
The Dolhpins are 8-5 overall, 4-3 at home, 3-2 in the AFC Eat and 6-4 in the AFC

LAST WEEK
The Dolphins beat the Buffalo Bills by the score of 16-3.  The defeat of the Bills practically eliminated them from the post season with a record of 6-7.

The San Francisco 49ers beat the New York Jets 24-14.  An impressive win for the 49ers and their interim coach Mike Singletary. 

AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS)
49ers
6-7 ATS Overall
3-3 ATS away
4-6 ATS as underdog
3-3 ATS as an away underdog

Dolphins
6-7 ATS Overall
2-5 ATS at home
0-4 ATS as favorite
0-3 ATS as a home favorite

PREVIEW
The San Francisco 49ers are playing hard for interim coach – Mike Singletary.  These last few games will make the difference in him backing back as the full-time coach next year.  The 49ers QB change to Shaun Hill has paid off.  It has made the offense more balanced. He has thrown for 11 touchdowns and with only 4 interceptions.

The Miami Dolphins are coming off a 1-15 season and have made a tremendous turnaround by acquiring QB Chad Pennington, who was released by the Jets after the signing of Bred Favre.  Both those teams are benefitting from the moves.  Miami’s the long misunderstood, ganja smoking, previously suspended running back Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown have led a successful running attack for the Dolphins this year.

KEYS TO THE GAME
The San Francisco 49ers are out of the post season but they are playing hard for Mike Singletary. Last week they beat the AFC East leading New York Jets 24-14.  They played tenacious defense and scored enough points to win.   This week the 49ers play another AFC East team in the Miami Dolphins.

If the 49ers Frank Gore is healthy and can run for a 100 yards, the Dolphins are in for a rough day. On the flip side, if Ricky Williams and Chad Pennington both have big games, the 49ers will fall short.
INJURIES (as of 12/12/08)
49ers
Arnax Battle WR (foot) is OUT
Frank Core RB (ankle) is QUESTIONABLE
Nate Clemens CB (thumb) and Josh Morgan WR (groin) are PROBABLE

Dolphins
No Injuries

PREDICTION
Miami Dolphins 21, San Francisco 49ers 17

We cannot believe that the current line favors the Miami Dolphins by 7 points.  The 49ers are playing for respect and believe in their coach – Mike Singletary.  Although the Dolphins are tied with the Jets and the Patriots, we just can’t see them winning by more than 7 points. We emphasize the point that both teams a little of 21 points a game.  

The QB situation is also a major reason for our prediction.  49ers QB Shaun Hill has thrown 10 TDS with only 4 interceptions while Dolphins QB, Chad Pennington has thrown for 8 TDS but thrown 11 interceptions – not good!

Finally, the Dolphins “reverse-perfect” record against the spread: ATS favorite (0-4) and a home ATS favorite (0-3) record make this an obvious best bet for the week.

But this is NFL football and anything can happpen (especially with the officiating these days).