GAME INFO:

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals
Game Date/Time:  Sat, Jan 3, 2009 4:30 pm EST : University of Phoenix Stadium, Arizona
TV: NBC

THE TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD
The Falcons are 8-8 ATS overall, 5-3 ATS away, 1-0 as the favorite and 0-0 as the away favorite

The Cardinals are 9-7 ATS overall, 5-3 ATS at home, 7-3 as the underdog and 3-0 as a home underdog

THE LINE (subject to change)
Atlanta is the favorite by 2 points. The Over/Under is 51 1/2 points

THE PREVIEW
The Falcons played well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4, but the one negative was Matt Ryan throwing 5 interceptions in his final 4 games. He had just 6 in his first 12 games. The Cardinals do not have a good pass defense and he is forecasted for a strong game with 250 passing yards and a rating of 91 in simulations. However, there is a 52 percent chance he throws 1 or more interceptions and the Falcons win just 35 percent of these simulations. If Ryan throws no interceptions the Falcons have a 58 percent chance of winning. Michael Turner was phenomenal at home this year averaging 129 yards on over 5 ypc, but on the road he averaged just 83 yards on 3.9 ypc. He is forecasted for a good, but not great game with nearly 90 yards. If Turner can dominate on the road like he were at home and have 100+ rushing yards the Falcons have a 68 percent chance of winning. The Cardinals are getting a great 300+ yard, 2 TD performance form Kurt Warner. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are averaging over 90 receiving yards in simulations and there is a 42 percent chance that both have at least 75 yards.

The Arizona Cardinals 5-5 in their last 10 games - losing to playoff teams.  In that stretch they have only beaten the Seahawks and Rams twice and San Francisco once. They lost to New England, Philadelphia and Carolina on the road and to the Giants and Vikings at home.  The Falcons are 7-3 in their last 10 games but have beaten teams like Carolina, San Diego and Minnesota. 

THE PREDICTION
Arizona Cardinals 28  Atlanta Falcons Falcons 24

Expect Kurt Warner to have the game of his life. And the Cardinals will prevail to an overperforming Atlanta Falcons team. Remember, the Cardinals are 7-3 as ATS underdogs and 3-0 ATS as underdog at home during the 2008 regular season.
The Atlanta Falcons are 0-8 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three years.

Take the Cardinals and the 2 points - and take the over in the parlay bet

thenflthisweek.com has a record of 8-0-1 in NFL picks against the spread over the last few weeks.  Now we are expanding our analysis to include our top 10 NFL Power Rankings. Why?

After doing extensive analysis on the NFL Power Rankings, we determined they are as objective as the college football polls. 

Sources such as ESPN, FOX and other entities all come up with their own.  But who is right?  None.  So we at thenflthisweek.com have compiled our own ranking based on many factors - and we tell you what these factors are!

 The ranking was ascertained by rating overall record, record within the division, record within the conference, strength of schedule, points scored, points given up, home/away record, key injuries, expert analysis, game statistics, turnover ratio, quarterback, running back and wide receiver strength, defense prowess and other intangibles.   WEEK 16 schedule and location are not a factor in the power rankings.

In week 15 of the NFL season, the top two teams in the NFL power ranking both loss.  The Tennessee Titans lost to the Houston Texans and the New York Giants lost to the Dallas Cowboys.  So how did the loses effect the overall power ranking going into week 16?

Here are our top 10 NFL Football Power Rankings for Week 16

1)  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3-0)
The Steelers played the Baltimore Ravens in a masterful game last week - winning with a few minutes left on the clock. There defense is the best in the AFC and the offense scores just enough points to win.  Pittsburgh leads the AFC North and will play the leader of the AFC South on Sunday - Tennessee Titans.

2) Tennesee Titans (12-2-0)
Although the Titans lost to the Houston Texans.  The Texans are a very good team even though they are only  7-7.  The Titans have a formidable defense that gives them an edge of the #3 ranked New York Giants.

3) New York Giants (12-2-0)
Yeah, we know they lost two games in a row. But Eli Manning and the Giants defense have what it takes to finish undefeated.  Playing within the conference certainly hurt them the last two weeks -but again, the Giants defense is the best in the NFC.  The Giants play #4 ranked Carolina at home on Sunday. Giants are #1 in the NFC East

4) Carolina Panthers (11-3-0)
The Panthers have been a sleeper most of the year but are turning it on over the last few weeks.  The test will come this weekend when they play the Giants in the Swamps of Jersey. The Panthers are in first place in the NFC South.

5) Dallas Cowboys (9-5-0)
The Cowboys defense sacked Eli Manning 8 times last week in Dallas and made the Giants offense look sad.  Romo and company are fighting amongst themselves but that should help them as each player wants to prove their worth.  They are in second place in the NFC East behind the Giants.  They are not guaranteed a postseason spot at this time. Dallas plays on Saturday against the Baltimore Ravens. 

6)  Baltimore Ravens (9-5-0)
The Ravens lost a tough fought battle to the AFC North leader Pittsburgh Steelers last week 13-9.  The Ravens defense is as good as the Steelers, except for one game against the Giants earlier in the season.  The Ravens play the Dallas Cowboys on the road in Dallas next Saturday

7) Indianapolis Colts (10-4-0)
Where have the Colts been all year?  It seems that Peyton Manning’s knee has healed as they have reeled off 8 wins in a row.  The Colts are right behind the Tennessee Titans is the AFC South.  The play Jacksonville on 4 days rest this week, in the Thursday night game of the week.

New England Patriots (9-5-0)
Who would have thunk it? Even if the Patriots win out - they could still miss the postseason.  Matt Cassel has been tremendous at QB and done something even the great Tom Brady hasn’t done - thrown for two 400 yard games in a season.  The defense is old but they get the job done. The Patriots play at home against the Arizona Cardinals - they should get it done.

9) Minnesota Vikings (9-5-0)
Probably the most underrated team in the league. The Viking play at home against Atlanta.  They quietly lead the NFC North.

10) Atlanta Falcons (9-5-0)
Another sleeper who may have their first winning season in years.  They are tied with the Tampa Bay Bucs for second in the NFC South.  They play the Viking Sunday - this game will determine their destiny.

So there you have it.  The top 10 teams in the NFL according to thenflthisweek.com.

Check back on Thursday afternoon for our Thursday Night Pick of The Week, check on Saturday for our Saturday and Sunday pick and on Monday for our Monday Night Pick of the Week.  Tuesdays we revisit the power rankings for the week.