afc matchup

January 10, 2010

AFC Wildcard Sunday – Patriots Will Prevail

The AFC East Division champion New England Patriots (10-6) host the AFC wild card winner Baltimore Ravens (9-7) in the second AFC matchup of Wildcard Weekend. If you’re a betting man, you can bet on the Patriots winning this one and moving on to the second week of the AFC playoffs.

The Patriots certainly aren’t the same team they were in their Superbowl seasons of 2001, 2003 and 2004. But they still have arguably the best active coach in the NFL – Bill Belichick. They also have future hall-of-famer Tom Brady leading the offense. One impressive stat that stands out is the Belichick-Brady combo have a 14-3 playoff record.

The Baltimore Ravens are lead by sophomore coach-QB combo of John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco. In 2008, the Ravens stunned the masses by not only making the playoffs but advancing to the 2008 AFC Championship game. However, in 2009 they barely beat the Oakland Raiders to win one of the two wildcard spots. And since the departure of defensive coordinator Rex Ryan (Now the Jets coach), the Ravens defense just isn’t the same.

The New England Patriots offense does have one big issue to overcome. They will operate without their star WR Wes Welker (placed on injured reserve). But Thenflthisweek.com believes that the combination of Patriots future hall-of-fame WR Randy Moss and rookie WR Julian Edelman should be able to pickup most of the slack left by Welker’s absence. The Pats also have a multitude of running backs in Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris available to carry the ball.

Don’t be misled by the Ravens offense. QB Joe Flacco has a complement of talent to help move the ball in RB Ray Rice, WR Derrick Mason and TE Todd Heap. But based on his 2009 regular season statistics, QB Flacco is not as effective on the road as he is at home.

The Patriots are favored by 3.5 points with the under/over is 43 points.

The combination and playoff history of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is the determining factor in our prediction.

Thenflthisweek.com AFC playoff prediction

Patriots 21 Ravens 17

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January 9, 2010

AFC Wildcard Saturday – Take The Jets

The AFC playoff picture will become much clearer this weekend.  The New York Jets take on the AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals to AFC wildcard Saturday, Jan 9, 2010. On Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens head to Foxboro to take on the AFC East champion New England Patriots. Here are some pre-game insights and predictions for the AFC matchup between the Jets and the Bengals.

Jets coach Rex Ryan says the Jets should be the favorite to win the Superbowl, but not even all-time Jet Joe Namath agrees. For a first-year NFL coach those are pretty big words, especially with a rookie QB leading the team. But there could be some credence in what he says – just take a look at the NFL regular season statistics.

The Jets are ranked 1st in the total defense (1ST against the pass/8th against the rush). Offensively they are ranked 20th in total offense but 1st in Rushing and 31st in passing. Pretty impressive statistics! And remember, the Jets beat the undefeated Colts in week 16 and routed the Bengals in week 17 to get an AFC wildcard spot.

However we know the Bengals are no slouches defensively. They are ranked 4th in total defense (8th against the pass/7th against the rush). Offensively they are ranked 24th overall (9th in rushing/26th in passing).

Many of the NFL analysts say you can throw away the stats from last week’s matchup, but some are too startling too avoid:

  • The Bengals had only 5 first downs in the entire game to the Jets 21
  • The Bengals averaged 1.8 yards per play to the Jets 4.4
  • The Bengals rushed and netted only 72 yards – the Jets 257 on the ground with a net of 320
  • Starting QB Carson Palmer had 0 yards passing (1/11 with 1 interception)
  • The Bengals time of possession was 18:46 minutes to the Jets 41:14

While we don’t expect another shutout by the Jets, we do expect a repeat performance by the Jets running attack. We also see Mr. Revis shutting down Ochocinco (or is it Johnson?) and the Bengals passing game.

Yes, the Bengals are playing at home but we feel the pressure is on them to win since they’ve been in the playoffs only twice since 1990 (1990, 2005 – both division championships).

The Bengals are favorite by 2 points In this AFC playoff match-up. The under/over is 34 points.

Thenflthisweek.com prediction for AFC Wildcard Saturday

Jets 28 Bengals 7

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